"Pseudo-MPEC" for 2023-137E = NORAD 57804 = H-2A F47 Stage 2 (SLIM booster)
Created 2023 Dec 10 15:38:36 UT using Find_Orb
Click here for an explanation of pseudo-MPECs
Click here for the original posting about this object on the NEOCP Junk list. You can click here for TLEs for this object (and for many other objects on these pages.)
The perigee for this object has dipped into the upper atmosphere, causing the apogee (and therefore orbital period) to drop. Click here for a graph of orbital period and perigee height for late 2023 to the end of 2024. Note that this should be taken with a large grain of salt. I have computed elements from the 2023 Dec 9 arc and found an area/mass ratio that results in a good fit to the November data (and subsequent data, including a recovery in early May 2024, confirms this.) So it's a decent approximation to how much drag this object is encountering, but only approximate. It shows the object hitting the brakes a bit in late 2023 (which we've observed), then again in mid-2024, and finally re-entering in December 2024. Overall, we can be sure that it'll keep hitting the atmosphere and eventually re-enter, but the specifics should not be believed. In particular, my code assumes a constant atmospheric density (the upper atmosphere varies a lot) and fits a single area/mass ratio for solar radiation pressure and for atmospheric drag.
Peter Birtwhistle has gotten a light-curve for this object. Looks to be a tumbler with a correspondingly weird light-curve. (Note that this was before the late 2023 dip into the upper atmosphere; the resulting drag probably modified its spin state, with the mid-2024 perigee dip modifying it further.) Peter has a gallery of light-curves, mostly of natural objects, but with several artsats at the bottom of the page.
Astrometry:
C40WMQ1 C2023 11 07.39623 04 46 11.71 +26 37 06.9 ~B7FJx11.9 GV 703
C40WMQ1 C2023 11 07.40153 04 46 34.97 +26 39 50.7 ~B7FJx V 703
C40WMQ1 C2023 11 07.40684 04 46 58.43 +26 42 27.7 ~B7FJx13.3 GV 703
C40WMQ1 C2023 11 07.41216 04 47 22.18 +26 44 58.4 ~B7FJx12.5 GV 703
A10Y8MO C2023 11 13K)mAstrometry!Irredacted;pMtDk\u0MCUafX%\`6X^'i`M;C@T05
A10Y8MO C2023 11 13plvh=$baoy6YZhhGm]a)oclickd^`7S)1IPb7mfT.5-En3Y7!Y8HT05
A10Y8MO C2023 11 13pyQ?S;$m,WQ['hereZLtF([g')!`@VtX%D2Vd?LB3XydPZk0-?VgT05
A10Y8MO C2023 11 13!k/]u0wofq(Epn43(V`/d7D/!Q(forXr*#'ARkHexplanation2jT05
A10YNZf* C2023 12 09*W`x3te;*f9*m]:nhv;Z*B!\h@^0BWJtED:`(Adc%X2GU8b5v_k3T05
A10YNZf C2023 12 09M1K'un8Eh]C(DKb:F'$%_6Mn(5^YNOlU:q\ieOh.2ej0j-K6h)MsT05
A10YNZf C2023 12 09Cv!24Za=WxS=(h%nSJYwW^3Eg)L`L;_6PS0pd.#d_,+T9U36fqJeT05
A10YNZf C2023 12 098-8RZnGs+wM^.CIpGgP,t6:3EMJ2xNwj5iBI^jBCAo')m*:L*F@;T05
A10YNZf KC2023 12 09.58752406 02 45.59 +29 30 22.1 ~C9Hp 12.2 GVNEOCP900
A10YNZf KC2023 12 09.58857806 02 51.09 +29 30 46.5 ~C9Hp 12.2 GVNEOCP900
A10YNZf KC2023 12 09.58963106 02 56.56 +29 31 10.7 ~C9Hp 12.5 GVNEOCP900
A10YNZf KC2023 12 09.59068406 03 02.05 +29 31 34.4 ~C9Hp 12.4 GVNEOCP900
A10YNZf KC2023 12 09.59173706 03 07.50 +29 31 58.0 ~C9Hp 12.2 GVNEOCP900
A10YNZf KB2023 12 09.71260 06 33 35.15 +29 32 27.4 ~C9Hp 12.0 GVNEOCPM44
A10YNZf KB2023 12 09.71323 06 33 41.39 +29 32 50.4 ~C9Hp 12.0 GVNEOCPM44
A10YNZf KB2023 12 09.71387 06 33 47.65 +29 33 13.6 ~C9Hp 11.6 GVNEOCPM44
A10YNZf KC2023 12 09.72710306 15 10.46 +29 47 44.2 ~C9IL 12.2 GVNEOCP900
A10YNZf KC2023 12 09.72815706 15 17.09 +29 47 33.3 ~C9IL 12.0 GVNEOCP900
A10YNZf KC2023 12 09.72921106 15 23.72 +29 47 22.1 ~C9IL 11.9 GVNEOCP900
A10YNZf KC2023 12 09.81169706 50 55.279+27 13 25.25 ~C9L3 13.2 GVNEOCPJ95
A10YNZf KC2023 12 09.81523906 51 48.389+27 13 50.88 ~C9L3 12.6 GVNEOCPJ95
A10YNZf KC2023 12 09.81660106 52 08.899+27 14 00.46 ~C9L3 12.1 GVNEOCPJ95
A10YNZf KC2023 12 09.82242806 53 37.080+27 14 36.46 ~C9L3 11.9 GVNEOCPJ95
A10YNZf KC2023 12 09.82271206 53 41.362+27 14 38.72 ~C9L3 12.0 GVNEOCPJ95
Station data:
(703) Catalina Sky Survey (N32.417003 W110.732640) US/Arizona. Observer G.
J. Leonard. Measurers E. C. Beshore, D. Fay, J. B. Fazekas, D. C. Fuls, A.
R. Gibbs, A. D. Grauer, H. Gröller, J. K. Hogan, R. A. Kowalski, S. M.
Larson, G. J. Leonard, D. Rankin, R. L. Seaman, F. C. Shelly, K. W.
Wierzchoś. 0.68-m Schmidt + 10K CCD.
(900) Moriyama (N35.049753 E135.989940) Japan. Observer Y. Ikari. 0.26-m
f/7.0 reflector + CCD.
(J95) Great Shefford (N51.474969 W1.447003) UK/England. Observer P.
Birtwhistle. 0.41-m f/6.3 Schmidt-Cassegrain + CCD.
(M44) Al-Khatim Observatory, Abu Dhabi (N24.219595 E54.920310) United Arab
Emirates.
(T05) ATLAS-HKO, Haleakala (N20.707582 W156.257008) US/Hawaii. Observers
L. Denneau, A. Heinze, H. Weiland, J. Tonry, H. Flewelling, A.
Fitzsimmons, D. Young, B. Stalder. Measurers L. Denneau, A. Heinze, J.
Tonry. 0.5-m f/2.0 Schmidt + CCD.
Orbital elements: 2023-137E = NORAD 57804 = H-2A F47 Stage 2
Perigee 2023 Dec 10.1650312 +/- 2.87e-5 TT; Constraint: A=.03447
Epoch 2023 Dec 10.0 TT; AMR 0.034116 +/- 9.6e-10 m2/kg Find_Orb
M 320.3420687681 +/- 0.0042 (J2000 equator)
n 240.3056782303 +/- 0.0307 Peri. 256.4419642 +/- 0.0016
a 55304.544221 +/- 4.71 Node 8.3741627 +/- 0.0015
e 0.882293873 +/- 1.78e-5 Incl. 30.2971797 +/- 0.00012
P2157.212m/1.498d H 27.68 G 0.15 U 10.4
q 6509.6836972 +/- 1.53 Q 104099.40474 +/- 7.93
20 of 28 observations 2023 Dec. 9 (10.3 hr); mean residual 0".503
Residuals in arcseconds: 231107 703( 187+ 54.2+) 231209 T05 .084- .022- 231209 900 1.88- .063- 231107 703( 184+ 53.5+) 231209 T05 .134- .102- 231209 900 .328- .224- 231107 703( 184+ 53.0+) 231209 900 .110- .077- 231209 900 .887+ .382- 231107 703( 187+ 53.2+) 231209 900 878µ- 4.2m+ 231209 J95 .244- .202+ 231113 T05(.975+ 4.66+) 231209 900 .113- .124+ 231209 J95 .155- .345+ 231113 T05(.713+ 4.41+) 231209 900 .135+ .040- 231209 J95 .067+ .548+ 231113 T05(1.00+ 4.64+) 231209 900 .043- .086- 231209 J95 .398+ .777- 231113 T05(2.12+ 4.99+) 231209 M44 1.31+ .265+ 231209 J95 .069- .216- 231209 T05 .285+ .173+ 231209 M44 1.35+ .302+ 231209 T05 .048- 8.2m+ 231209 M44 .412+ .201+ Ephemerides (geocentric): Date (UTC) HH RA Dec delta elong mag " sig PA ---- -------- ------------ ------------ ------ ----- --- -------- 2023 12 10 00 07 40 13.990 +29 14 09.04 55317 144.7 11.9 1.34 136 2023 12 10 01 08 05 32.161 +28 16 18.78 46068 139.2 11.7 1.08 167 2023 12 10 02 08 44 17.128 +26 11 01.24 34994 130.4 11.3 2.84 80 2023 12 10 03 10 02 28.854 +19 41 01.24 21075 111.5 10.8 22.5 109 2023 12 10 04 19 01 27.532 -30 05 37.47 6687 26.8 15?? 496 87 2023 12 10 05 01 37 20.692 +09 12 01.53 22908 128.4 10.5 81.5 62 2023 12 10 06 02 39 12.324 +17 00 15.64 36405 145.1 11.0 50.4 66 2023 12 10 07 03 11 14.394 +20 24 54.64 47223 153.2 11.4 41.3 69 2023 12 10 08 03 32 45.388 +22 25 48.17 56290 158.4 11.6 37.4 70 2023 12 10 09 03 49 01.670 +23 48 04.59 64068 162.2 11.7 35.3 72 2023 12 10 10 04 02 12.583 +24 48 53.26 70820 165.1 11.9 34.2 73 2023 12 10 11 04 13 23.067 +25 36 20.00 76716 167.5 11.9 33.7 74 2023 12 10 12 04 23 10.184 +26 14 47.27 81873 169.5 12.0 33.5 75 2023 12 10 13 04 31 57.063 +26 46 50.72 86372 171.1 12.1 33.6 76 2023 12 10 14 04 39 59.138 +27 14 09.12 90276 172.4 12.1 33.9 77 2023 12 10 15 04 47 27.278 +27 37 48.43 93632 173.4 12.1 34.4 78 2023 12 10 16 04 54 29.491 +27 58 34.53 96474 174.1 12.2 35.1 78 2023 12 10 17 05 01 11.927 +28 17 00.30 98832 174.4 12.2 35.9 79 2023 12 10 18 05 07 39.488 +28 33 29.88 100727 174.3 12.2 36.9 80 2023 12 10 19 05 13 56.236 +28 48 21.27 102174 174.0 12.3 38.1 80 2023 12 10 20 05 20 05.668 +29 01 48.03 103186 173.4 12.3 39.5 81 2023 12 10 21 05 26 10.917 +29 14 00.35 103769 172.6 12.4 41.0 82 2023 12 10 22 05 32 14.912 +29 25 05.77 103930 171.7 12.4 42.9 83 2023 12 10 23 05 38 20.507 +29 35 09.62 103669 170.7 12.5 45.0 83 2023 12 11 00 05 44 30.607 +29 44 15.29 102984 169.6 12.5 47.4 84 2023 12 11 01 05 50 48.300 +29 52 24.26 101869 168.4 12.5 50.2 85 2023 12 11 02 05 57 16.997 +29 59 36.06 100316 167.2 12.5 53.6 85 2023 12 11 03 06 04 00.622 +30 05 47.96 98313 165.9 12.5 57.6 86 2023 12 11 04 06 11 03.854 +30 10 54.41 95841 164.6 12.5 62.4 87 2023 12 11 05 06 18 32.474 +30 14 46.05 92879 163.1 12.5 68.2 88 2023 12 11 06 06 26 33.879 +30 17 08.11 89396 161.5 12.5 75.5 89 2023 12 11 07 06 35 17.889 +30 17 37.51 85354 159.7 12.4 84.7 90 2023 12 11 08 06 44 58.066 +30 15 37.80 80703 157.8 12.4 96.8 91 2023 12 11 09 06 55 54.011 +30 10 09.61 75378 155.5 12.3 113 93 2023 12 11 10 07 08 35.653 +29 59 31.25 69289 152.9 12.2 136 94 2023 12 11 11 07 23 51.991 +29 40 35.44 62309 149.7 12.1 172 96 2023 12 11 12 07 43 11.178 +29 06 59.44 54250 145.5 11.9 230 99 2023 12 11 13 08 09 35.166 +28 03 27.62 44815 139.8 11.6 343 102 2023 12 11 14 08 50 54.381 +25 42 31.01 33466 130.4 11.2 625 106 2023 12 11 15 10 19 26.448 +17 48 35.00 19075 108.6 10.7 1967 115 2023 12 11 16 21 30 59.185 -22 34 00.19 8019 59.1 11?? 182' 69 2023 12 11 17 01 49 12.899 +10 53 03.28 24767 130.2 10.6 1219 62 2023 12 11 18 02 44 51.492 +17 42 27.36 37840 145.1 11.1 563 65 2023 12 11 19 03 15 07.345 +20 51 12.57 48386 152.7 11.4 375 68 2023 12 11 20 03 35 51.342 +22 45 10.80 57253 157.7 11.6 294 70 2023 12 11 21 03 51 42.441 +24 03 39.58 64867 161.3 11.8 252 71 2023 12 11 22 04 04 38.453 +25 02 05.11 71478 164.2 11.9 228 73 2023 12 11 23 04 15 39.675 +25 47 53.15 77246 166.6 12.0 214 74 2023 12 12 00 04 25 20.969 +26 25 07.67 82283 168.5 12.1 206 75 2023 12 12 01 04 34 04.304 +26 56 14.64 86670 170.2 12.1 203 76 2023 12 12 02 04 42 04.453 +27 22 47.34 90464 171.6 12.1 202 77 2023 12 12 03 04 49 31.891 +27 45 48.39 93712 172.7 12.2 203 78 2023 12 12 04 04 56 34.385 +28 06 01.45 96448 173.5 12.2 207 78 2023 12 12 05 05 03 17.937 +28 23 57.93 98699 174.1 12.2 212 79 2023 12 12 06 05 09 47.365 +28 40 00.87 100485 174.3 12.2 218 80 2023 12 12 07 05 16 06.691 +28 54 27.47 101822 174.1 12.3 226 81 2023 12 12 08 05 22 19.409 +29 07 30.62 102720 173.7 12.3 236 81 2023 12 12 09 05 28 28.680 +29 19 19.95 103187 173.1 12.4 247 82 2023 12 12 10 05 34 37.490 +29 30 02.47 103226 172.3 12.4 260 83 2023 12 12 11 05 40 48.786 +29 39 42.98 102837 171.3 12.4 276 84 2023 12 12 12 05 47 05.605 +29 48 24.26 102018 170.3 12.5 294 84 2023 12 12 13 05 53 31.216 +29 56 07.12 100762 169.2 12.5 315 85 2023 12 12 14 06 00 09.282 +30 02 50.24 99059 168.0 12.5 339 86 2023 12 12 15 06 07 04.067 +30 08 29.74 96895 166.7 12.5 369 87 2023 12 12 16 06 14 20.730 +30 12 58.50 94249 165.3 12.5 404 88 2023 12 12 17 06 22 05.731 +30 16 04.88 91096 163.8 12.4 448 89 2023 12 12 18 06 30 27.462 +30 17 30.65 87405 162.1 12.4 502 90 2023 12 12 19 06 39 37.244 +30 16 47.23 83130 160.3 12.4 572 91 2023 12 12 20 06 49 51.017 +30 13 08.99 78216 158.2 12.3 664 92 2023 12 12 21 07 01 32.350 +30 05 20.06 72588 155.8 12.2 790 94 2023 12 12 22 07 15 18.292 +29 51 06.72 66141 152.9 12.1 974 95 2023 12 12 23 07 32 11.887 +29 26 12.26 58725 149.3 11.9 1262 97 2023 12 13 00 07 54 12.981 +28 41 18.56 50111 144.6 11.7 1769 100 2023 12 13 01 08 25 51.310 +27 11 50.70 39916 137.6 11.4 2847 104 2023 12 13 02 09 20 46.625 +23 25 25.07 27401 124.8 11.0 6229 110 2023 12 13 03 12 09 54.319 +03 15 00.21 11086 79.5 10.6 708' 120 2023 12 13 04 00 41 06.259 +01 22 10.40 15956 109.4 10.3 270' 60 2023 12 13 05 02 20 46.038 +14 58 53.76 31057 137.3 10.9 4627 63 2023 12 13 06 03 01 20.041 +19 32 16.93 42784 147.8 11.3 2566 66 2023 12 13 07 03 26 30.856 +21 58 46.19 52442 154.0 11.6 1799 69 2023 12 13 08 03 44 49.336 +23 33 30.35 60637 158.3 11.7 1422 70 2023 12 13 09 03 59 18.756 +24 41 20.90 67701 161.6 11.9 1209 72 2023 12 13 10 04 11 24.691 +25 33 08.56 73835 164.2 12.0 1079 73 2023 12 13 11 04 21 53.742 +26 14 27.32 79175 166.4 12.1 997 74 2023 12 13 12 04 31 14.047 +26 48 28.19 83816 168.3 12.1 945 75 2023 12 13 13 04 39 43.926 +27 17 09.12 87828 169.9 12.1 913 76 2023 12 13 14 04 47 36.038 +27 41 47.26 91261 171.3 12.2 897 77 2023 12 13 15 04 54 59.571 +28 03 15.32 94158 172.4 12.2 892 78 2023 12 13 16 05 02 01.497 +28 22 10.54 96546 173.2 12.2 897 79 2023 12 13 17 05 08 47.327 +28 38 59.90 98450 173.8 12.2 910 80 2023 12 13 18 05 15 21.596 +28 54 03.29 99887 174.1 12.2 931 81 2023 12 13 19 05 21 48.194 +29 07 35.48 100870 174.0 12.3 960 81 2023 12 13 20 05 28 10.605 +29 19 47.43 101406 173.7 12.3 996 82 2023 12 13 21 05 34 32.091 +29 30 47.04 101500 173.0 12.3 1040 83 2023 12 13 22 05 40 55.849 +29 40 39.69 101153 172.2 12.4 1094 84 2023 12 13 23 05 47 25.160 +29 49 28.50 100362 171.3 12.4 1159 84 2023 12 14 00 05 54 03.546 +29 57 14.33 99121 170.2 12.4 1236 85 2023 12 14 01 06 00 54.954 +30 03 55.64 97418 169.0 12.4 1329 86 2023 12 14 02 06 08 03.992 +30 09 28.04 95239 167.7 12.4 1441 87 2023 12 14 03 06 15 36.250 +30 13 43.44 92564 166.3 12.4 1578 88