"Pseudo-MPEC" for 2023-137E = NORAD 57804 = H-2A F47 Stage 2 (SLIM booster)

Created 2023 Dec 10 15:38:36 UT using Find_Orb

Click here for an explanation of pseudo-MPECs

Click here for the original posting about this object on the NEOCP Junk list. You can click here for TLEs for this object (and for many other objects on these pages.)

The perigee for this object has dipped into the upper atmosphere, causing the apogee (and therefore orbital period) to drop. Click here for a graph of orbital period and perigee height for late 2023 to the end of 2024. Note that this should be taken with a large grain of salt. I have computed elements from the 2023 Dec 9 arc and found an area/mass ratio that results in a good fit to the November data. So it's a decent approximation to how much drag this object is encountering, but only approximate. It shows the object hitting the brakes a bit in late 2023 (which we've observed), then again in mid-2024, and finally re-entering in late 2025. Overall, the idea that it'll keep hitting the atmosphere and eventually re-enter is correct, but the specifics should not be believed.

Peter Birtwhistle has gotten a light-curve for this object. Looks to be a tumbler with a correspondingly weird light-curve. Peter has a gallery of light-curves, mostly of natural objects, but with several artsats at the bottom of the page.

 
 Astrometry: 
     C40WMQ1  C2023 11 07.39623 04 46 11.71 +26 37 06.9    ~B7FJx11.9 GV     703
     C40WMQ1  C2023 11 07.40153 04 46 34.97 +26 39 50.7    ~B7FJx      V     703
     C40WMQ1  C2023 11 07.40684 04 46 58.43 +26 42 27.7    ~B7FJx13.3 GV     703
     C40WMQ1  C2023 11 07.41216 04 47 22.18 +26 44 58.4    ~B7FJx12.5 GV     703
     A10Y8MO  C2023 11 13K)mAstrometry!Irredacted;pMtDk\u0MCUafX%\`6X^'i`M;C@T05
     A10Y8MO  C2023 11 13plvh=$baoy6YZhhGm]a)oclickd^`7S)1IPb7mfT.5-En3Y7!Y8HT05
     A10Y8MO  C2023 11 13pyQ?S;$m,WQ['hereZLtF([g')!`@VtX%D2Vd?LB3XydPZk0-?VgT05
     A10Y8MO  C2023 11 13!k/]u0wofq(Epn43(V`/d7D/!Q(forXr*#'ARkHexplanation2jT05
     A10YNZf* C2023 12 09*W`x3te;*f9*m]:nhv;Z*B!\h@^0BWJtED:`(Adc%X2GU8b5v_k3T05
     A10YNZf  C2023 12 09M1K'un8Eh]C(DKb:F'$%_6Mn(5^YNOlU:q\ieOh.2ej0j-K6h)MsT05
     A10YNZf  C2023 12 09Cv!24Za=WxS=(h%nSJYwW^3Eg)L`L;_6PS0pd.#d_,+T9U36fqJeT05
     A10YNZf  C2023 12 098-8RZnGs+wM^.CIpGgP,t6:3EMJ2xNwj5iBI^jBCAo')m*:L*F@;T05
     A10YNZf KC2023 12 09.58752406 02 45.59 +29 30 22.1    ~C9Hp 12.2 GVNEOCP900
     A10YNZf KC2023 12 09.58857806 02 51.09 +29 30 46.5    ~C9Hp 12.2 GVNEOCP900
     A10YNZf KC2023 12 09.58963106 02 56.56 +29 31 10.7    ~C9Hp 12.5 GVNEOCP900
     A10YNZf KC2023 12 09.59068406 03 02.05 +29 31 34.4    ~C9Hp 12.4 GVNEOCP900
     A10YNZf KC2023 12 09.59173706 03 07.50 +29 31 58.0    ~C9Hp 12.2 GVNEOCP900
     A10YNZf KB2023 12 09.71260 06 33 35.15 +29 32 27.4    ~C9Hp 12.0 GVNEOCPM44
     A10YNZf KB2023 12 09.71323 06 33 41.39 +29 32 50.4    ~C9Hp 12.0 GVNEOCPM44
     A10YNZf KB2023 12 09.71387 06 33 47.65 +29 33 13.6    ~C9Hp 11.6 GVNEOCPM44
     A10YNZf KC2023 12 09.72710306 15 10.46 +29 47 44.2    ~C9IL 12.2 GVNEOCP900
     A10YNZf KC2023 12 09.72815706 15 17.09 +29 47 33.3    ~C9IL 12.0 GVNEOCP900
     A10YNZf KC2023 12 09.72921106 15 23.72 +29 47 22.1    ~C9IL 11.9 GVNEOCP900
     A10YNZf KC2023 12 09.81169706 50 55.279+27 13 25.25   ~C9L3 13.2 GVNEOCPJ95
     A10YNZf KC2023 12 09.81523906 51 48.389+27 13 50.88   ~C9L3 12.6 GVNEOCPJ95
     A10YNZf KC2023 12 09.81660106 52 08.899+27 14 00.46   ~C9L3 12.1 GVNEOCPJ95
     A10YNZf KC2023 12 09.82242806 53 37.080+27 14 36.46   ~C9L3 11.9 GVNEOCPJ95
     A10YNZf KC2023 12 09.82271206 53 41.362+27 14 38.72   ~C9L3 12.0 GVNEOCPJ95

Station data:
(703) Catalina Sky Survey  (N32.417003 W110.732640)  US/Arizona.  Observer G.
   J. Leonard. Measurers E. C. Beshore, D. Fay, J. B. Fazekas, D. C. Fuls, A.
   R. Gibbs, A. D. Grauer, H. Gröller, J. K. Hogan, R. A. Kowalski, S. M.
   Larson, G. J. Leonard, D. Rankin, R. L. Seaman, F. C. Shelly, K. W.
   Wierzchoś. 0.68-m Schmidt + 10K CCD.
(900) Moriyama  (N35.049753 E135.989940)  Japan.  Observer Y. Ikari. 0.26-m
   f/7.0 reflector + CCD.
(J95) Great Shefford  (N51.474969 W1.447003)  UK/England.  Observer P.
   Birtwhistle. 0.41-m f/6.3 Schmidt-Cassegrain + CCD.
(M44) Al-Khatim Observatory, Abu Dhabi  (N24.219595 E54.920310)  United Arab
   Emirates.
(T05) ATLAS-HKO, Haleakala  (N20.707582 W156.257008)  US/Hawaii.  Observers
   L. Denneau, A. Heinze, H. Weiland, J. Tonry, H. Flewelling, A.
   Fitzsimmons, D. Young, B. Stalder. Measurers L. Denneau, A. Heinze, J.
   Tonry. 0.5-m f/2.0 Schmidt + CCD.

Orbital elements:  2023-137E = NORAD 57804 = H-2A F47 Stage 2
   Perigee 2023 Dec 10.1650312 +/- 2.87e-5 TT;  Constraint: A=.03447
Epoch 2023 Dec 10.0 TT; AMR 0.034116 +/- 9.6e-10 m2/kg          Find_Orb
M 320.3420687681 +/- 0.0042         (J2000 equator)
n 240.3056782303 +/- 0.0307         Peri.  256.4419642 +/- 0.0016
a 55304.544221 +/- 4.71             Node     8.3741627 +/- 0.0015
e   0.882293873 +/- 1.78e-5         Incl.   30.2971797 +/- 0.00012
P2157.212m/1.498d          H 27.68  G  0.15   U 10.4
q 6509.6836972 +/- 1.53    Q 104099.40474 +/- 7.93
20 of 28 observations 2023 Dec. 9 (10.3 hr); mean residual 0".503
Residuals in arcseconds: 
231107 703( 187+ 54.2+)   231209 T05 .084- .022-    231209 900 1.88- .063-
231107 703( 184+ 53.5+)   231209 T05 .134- .102-    231209 900 .328- .224-
231107 703( 184+ 53.0+)   231209 900 .110- .077-    231209 900 .887+ .382-
231107 703( 187+ 53.2+)   231209 900 878µ- 4.2m+    231209 J95 .244- .202+
231113 T05(.975+ 4.66+)   231209 900 .113- .124+    231209 J95 .155- .345+
231113 T05(.713+ 4.41+)   231209 900 .135+ .040-    231209 J95 .067+ .548+
231113 T05(1.00+ 4.64+)   231209 900 .043- .086-    231209 J95 .398+ .777-
231113 T05(2.12+ 4.99+)   231209 M44 1.31+ .265+    231209 J95 .069- .216-
231209 T05 .285+ .173+    231209 M44 1.35+ .302+
231209 T05 .048- 8.2m+    231209 M44 .412+ .201+

Ephemerides (geocentric):
Date (UTC) HH   RA             Dec           delta elong  mag " sig PA
---- --------  ------------   ------------  ------ -----  --- --------
2023 12 10 00  07 40 13.990   +29 14 09.04   55317 144.7 11.9 1.34 136
2023 12 10 01  08 05 32.161   +28 16 18.78   46068 139.2 11.7 1.08 167
2023 12 10 02  08 44 17.128   +26 11 01.24   34994 130.4 11.3 2.84  80
2023 12 10 03  10 02 28.854   +19 41 01.24   21075 111.5 10.8 22.5 109
2023 12 10 04  19 01 27.532   -30 05 37.47    6687  26.8 15??  496  87
2023 12 10 05  01 37 20.692   +09 12 01.53   22908 128.4 10.5 81.5  62
2023 12 10 06  02 39 12.324   +17 00 15.64   36405 145.1 11.0 50.4  66
2023 12 10 07  03 11 14.394   +20 24 54.64   47223 153.2 11.4 41.3  69
2023 12 10 08  03 32 45.388   +22 25 48.17   56290 158.4 11.6 37.4  70
2023 12 10 09  03 49 01.670   +23 48 04.59   64068 162.2 11.7 35.3  72
2023 12 10 10  04 02 12.583   +24 48 53.26   70820 165.1 11.9 34.2  73
2023 12 10 11  04 13 23.067   +25 36 20.00   76716 167.5 11.9 33.7  74
2023 12 10 12  04 23 10.184   +26 14 47.27   81873 169.5 12.0 33.5  75
2023 12 10 13  04 31 57.063   +26 46 50.72   86372 171.1 12.1 33.6  76
2023 12 10 14  04 39 59.138   +27 14 09.12   90276 172.4 12.1 33.9  77
2023 12 10 15  04 47 27.278   +27 37 48.43   93632 173.4 12.1 34.4  78
2023 12 10 16  04 54 29.491   +27 58 34.53   96474 174.1 12.2 35.1  78
2023 12 10 17  05 01 11.927   +28 17 00.30   98832 174.4 12.2 35.9  79
2023 12 10 18  05 07 39.488   +28 33 29.88  100727 174.3 12.2 36.9  80
2023 12 10 19  05 13 56.236   +28 48 21.27  102174 174.0 12.3 38.1  80
2023 12 10 20  05 20 05.668   +29 01 48.03  103186 173.4 12.3 39.5  81
2023 12 10 21  05 26 10.917   +29 14 00.35  103769 172.6 12.4 41.0  82
2023 12 10 22  05 32 14.912   +29 25 05.77  103930 171.7 12.4 42.9  83
2023 12 10 23  05 38 20.507   +29 35 09.62  103669 170.7 12.5 45.0  83
2023 12 11 00  05 44 30.607   +29 44 15.29  102984 169.6 12.5 47.4  84
2023 12 11 01  05 50 48.300   +29 52 24.26  101869 168.4 12.5 50.2  85
2023 12 11 02  05 57 16.997   +29 59 36.06  100316 167.2 12.5 53.6  85
2023 12 11 03  06 04 00.622   +30 05 47.96   98313 165.9 12.5 57.6  86
2023 12 11 04  06 11 03.854   +30 10 54.41   95841 164.6 12.5 62.4  87
2023 12 11 05  06 18 32.474   +30 14 46.05   92879 163.1 12.5 68.2  88
2023 12 11 06  06 26 33.879   +30 17 08.11   89396 161.5 12.5 75.5  89
2023 12 11 07  06 35 17.889   +30 17 37.51   85354 159.7 12.4 84.7  90
2023 12 11 08  06 44 58.066   +30 15 37.80   80703 157.8 12.4 96.8  91
2023 12 11 09  06 55 54.011   +30 10 09.61   75378 155.5 12.3  113  93
2023 12 11 10  07 08 35.653   +29 59 31.25   69289 152.9 12.2  136  94
2023 12 11 11  07 23 51.991   +29 40 35.44   62309 149.7 12.1  172  96
2023 12 11 12  07 43 11.178   +29 06 59.44   54250 145.5 11.9  230  99
2023 12 11 13  08 09 35.166   +28 03 27.62   44815 139.8 11.6  343 102
2023 12 11 14  08 50 54.381   +25 42 31.01   33466 130.4 11.2  625 106
2023 12 11 15  10 19 26.448   +17 48 35.00   19075 108.6 10.7 1967 115
2023 12 11 16  21 30 59.185   -22 34 00.19    8019  59.1 11?? 182'  69
2023 12 11 17  01 49 12.899   +10 53 03.28   24767 130.2 10.6 1219  62
2023 12 11 18  02 44 51.492   +17 42 27.36   37840 145.1 11.1  563  65
2023 12 11 19  03 15 07.345   +20 51 12.57   48386 152.7 11.4  375  68
2023 12 11 20  03 35 51.342   +22 45 10.80   57253 157.7 11.6  294  70
2023 12 11 21  03 51 42.441   +24 03 39.58   64867 161.3 11.8  252  71
2023 12 11 22  04 04 38.453   +25 02 05.11   71478 164.2 11.9  228  73
2023 12 11 23  04 15 39.675   +25 47 53.15   77246 166.6 12.0  214  74
2023 12 12 00  04 25 20.969   +26 25 07.67   82283 168.5 12.1  206  75
2023 12 12 01  04 34 04.304   +26 56 14.64   86670 170.2 12.1  203  76
2023 12 12 02  04 42 04.453   +27 22 47.34   90464 171.6 12.1  202  77
2023 12 12 03  04 49 31.891   +27 45 48.39   93712 172.7 12.2  203  78
2023 12 12 04  04 56 34.385   +28 06 01.45   96448 173.5 12.2  207  78
2023 12 12 05  05 03 17.937   +28 23 57.93   98699 174.1 12.2  212  79
2023 12 12 06  05 09 47.365   +28 40 00.87  100485 174.3 12.2  218  80
2023 12 12 07  05 16 06.691   +28 54 27.47  101822 174.1 12.3  226  81
2023 12 12 08  05 22 19.409   +29 07 30.62  102720 173.7 12.3  236  81
2023 12 12 09  05 28 28.680   +29 19 19.95  103187 173.1 12.4  247  82
2023 12 12 10  05 34 37.490   +29 30 02.47  103226 172.3 12.4  260  83
2023 12 12 11  05 40 48.786   +29 39 42.98  102837 171.3 12.4  276  84
2023 12 12 12  05 47 05.605   +29 48 24.26  102018 170.3 12.5  294  84
2023 12 12 13  05 53 31.216   +29 56 07.12  100762 169.2 12.5  315  85
2023 12 12 14  06 00 09.282   +30 02 50.24   99059 168.0 12.5  339  86
2023 12 12 15  06 07 04.067   +30 08 29.74   96895 166.7 12.5  369  87
2023 12 12 16  06 14 20.730   +30 12 58.50   94249 165.3 12.5  404  88
2023 12 12 17  06 22 05.731   +30 16 04.88   91096 163.8 12.4  448  89
2023 12 12 18  06 30 27.462   +30 17 30.65   87405 162.1 12.4  502  90
2023 12 12 19  06 39 37.244   +30 16 47.23   83130 160.3 12.4  572  91
2023 12 12 20  06 49 51.017   +30 13 08.99   78216 158.2 12.3  664  92
2023 12 12 21  07 01 32.350   +30 05 20.06   72588 155.8 12.2  790  94
2023 12 12 22  07 15 18.292   +29 51 06.72   66141 152.9 12.1  974  95
2023 12 12 23  07 32 11.887   +29 26 12.26   58725 149.3 11.9 1262  97
2023 12 13 00  07 54 12.981   +28 41 18.56   50111 144.6 11.7 1769 100
2023 12 13 01  08 25 51.310   +27 11 50.70   39916 137.6 11.4 2847 104
2023 12 13 02  09 20 46.625   +23 25 25.07   27401 124.8 11.0 6229 110
2023 12 13 03  12 09 54.319   +03 15 00.21   11086  79.5 10.6 708' 120
2023 12 13 04  00 41 06.259   +01 22 10.40   15956 109.4 10.3 270'  60
2023 12 13 05  02 20 46.038   +14 58 53.76   31057 137.3 10.9 4627  63
2023 12 13 06  03 01 20.041   +19 32 16.93   42784 147.8 11.3 2566  66
2023 12 13 07  03 26 30.856   +21 58 46.19   52442 154.0 11.6 1799  69
2023 12 13 08  03 44 49.336   +23 33 30.35   60637 158.3 11.7 1422  70
2023 12 13 09  03 59 18.756   +24 41 20.90   67701 161.6 11.9 1209  72
2023 12 13 10  04 11 24.691   +25 33 08.56   73835 164.2 12.0 1079  73
2023 12 13 11  04 21 53.742   +26 14 27.32   79175 166.4 12.1  997  74
2023 12 13 12  04 31 14.047   +26 48 28.19   83816 168.3 12.1  945  75
2023 12 13 13  04 39 43.926   +27 17 09.12   87828 169.9 12.1  913  76
2023 12 13 14  04 47 36.038   +27 41 47.26   91261 171.3 12.2  897  77
2023 12 13 15  04 54 59.571   +28 03 15.32   94158 172.4 12.2  892  78
2023 12 13 16  05 02 01.497   +28 22 10.54   96546 173.2 12.2  897  79
2023 12 13 17  05 08 47.327   +28 38 59.90   98450 173.8 12.2  910  80
2023 12 13 18  05 15 21.596   +28 54 03.29   99887 174.1 12.2  931  81
2023 12 13 19  05 21 48.194   +29 07 35.48  100870 174.0 12.3  960  81
2023 12 13 20  05 28 10.605   +29 19 47.43  101406 173.7 12.3  996  82
2023 12 13 21  05 34 32.091   +29 30 47.04  101500 173.0 12.3 1040  83
2023 12 13 22  05 40 55.849   +29 40 39.69  101153 172.2 12.4 1094  84
2023 12 13 23  05 47 25.160   +29 49 28.50  100362 171.3 12.4 1159  84
2023 12 14 00  05 54 03.546   +29 57 14.33   99121 170.2 12.4 1236  85
2023 12 14 01  06 00 54.954   +30 03 55.64   97418 169.0 12.4 1329  86
2023 12 14 02  06 08 03.992   +30 09 28.04   95239 167.7 12.4 1441  87
2023 12 14 03  06 15 36.250   +30 13 43.44   92564 166.3 12.4 1578  88