"Pseudo-MPEC" for 2016-038C = NORAD 41590 = Falcon 9-026 Stage 2

Created 2023 Jun 15 14:52:14 UT using Find_Orb

Click here for an explanation of pseudo-MPECs

In late May 2023, this object's perigee dipped into the upper atmosphere, reaching a minimum perigee of about 130 km and dragging its orbital period down (click here for a plot of orbital period and perigee height from 2023 May 1 to 2023 October 1). This caused the object to drift off from Space-Track TLEs, resulting in its appearance on NEOCP.

I've computed ephemerides and fixed TLEs are available from the GitHub site. This should enable Sat_ID to catch this object if the surveys observe it again (which they almost certainly will.)

Follow-up : ATLAS recovered this object in early September. The atmospheric drag didn't pull it down as far as I'd expected, probably because the atmospheric density at high altitudes has a strong seasonal component to it (and my drag model doesn't include that fact).

 
 Astrometry: 
     C3QUCA1  C2023 05 09.43091 16 55 04.72 +10 25 48.3    ~59CLx11.3 GV     703
     C3QUCA1  C2023 05 09.43215 16 55 18.92 +10 27 30.4    ~59CLx11.8 GV     703
     C3QUCA1  C2023 05 09.43338 16 55 33.22 +10 29 13.3    ~59CLx11.5 GV     703
     C3QUCA1  C2023 05 09.43461 16 55 47.25 +10 30 53.6    ~59CLx11.3 GV     703
     A10VwJZ  C2023 05 15.48467817 55 08.472+15 25 39.04   ~5HHtx11.70cV!    T05
     A10VwJZ  C2023 05 15.48784317 55 50.119+15 30 00.54   ~5HHtx12.09cV!    T05
     A10VwJZ  C2023 05 15.49328517 57 02.323+15 37 28.63   ~5HHtx11.82cV!    T05
     A10VAWp  C2023 05 20.20198516 03 35.630+13 03 05.76   ~5M30x10.81oV!    W68
     A10VAWp  C2023 05 20.20699316 05 12.979+13 11 54.78   ~5M30x10.79oV!    W68
     A10VAWp  C2023 05 20.20971916 06 04.826+13 16 36.59   ~5M30x11.17oV!    W68
     A10VAWp  C2023 05 20.22709616 11 20.158+13 45 08.35   ~5M30x11.07oV!    W68
     A10VAWp  C2023 05 20.23226516 12 49.366+13 53 10.72   ~5M30x11.07oV!    W68
     A10VAWp  C2023 05 20.23508116 13 37.212+13 57 28.66   ~5M30x11.15oV!    W68
     A10VCAK  C2023 05 21.49629718 43 49.121+18 09 53.24   ~5NIDx11.40oV!    T05
     A10VCAK  C2023 05 21.49926318 44 56.714+18 14 12.88   ~5NIDx11.71oV!    T05
     A10VCAK  C2023 05 21.50288018 46 20.964+18 19 31.01   ~5NIDx11.46oV!    T05
     A10VCAK  C2023 05 21.50677318 47 53.194+18 25 11.71   ~5NIDx12.05oV!    T05
     A10VCAK  C2023 05 21.50993818 49 10.085+18 29 50.21   ~5NIDx11.84oV!    T05
     A10VCAK  C2023 05 21.51551018 51 28.922+18 37 59.74   ~5NIDx11.93oV!    T05
     A10VCQd  C2023 05 25.55275217 34 11.640+15 27 32.51   ~5S2tx11.41oV!    T05
     A10VCQd  C2023 05 25.55680317 34 58.502+15 31 31.04   ~5S2tx11.40oV!    T05
     A10VCQd  C2023 05 25.56228117 36 02.882+15 36 49.50   ~5S2tx11.63oV!    T05
     A10VCQd  C2023 05 25.58650017 40 58.795+15 59 02.29   ~5S2tx11.72oV!    T05
     A10VCQd  C2023 05 25.61277217 46 47.568+16 21 01.84   ~5S2tx11.62oV!    T05
     A10VD63  C2023 05 31.43457017 51 20.570+15 53 34.66   ~62I3 11.55oV!    T05
     A10VD63  C2023 05 31.43592517 51 37.056+15 55 18.16   ~62I3 11.53oV!    T05
     A10VD63  C2023 05 31.44117517 52 40.313+16 01 51.06   ~62I3 11.63oV!    T05
     A10VD63  C2023 05 31.47067517 58 42.665+16 37 23.38   ~62I3 11.60oV!    T05
     A10VD63  C2023 05 31.47318617 59 14.244+16 40 18.91   ~62I3 11.36oV!    T05
     A10VD63  C2023 05 31.47610817 59 51.230+16 43 41.92   ~62I3 11.37oV!    T05
     A10VD63  C2023 05 31.47881918 00 25.313+16 46 46.96   ~62I3 11.47oV!    T05
     C3R7A71  C2023 06 05.37057 17 12 15.95 +13 16 34.5    ~65FN 11.6 GV     703
     C3R7A71  C2023 06 05.37181 17 12 30.84 +13 17 59.7    ~65FN 11.3 GV     703
     C3R7A71  C2023 06 05.37304 17 12 45.28 +13 19 21.8    ~65FN 11.5 GV     703
     C3R7A71  C2023 06 05.37427 17 13 00.07 +13 20 45.5    ~65FN 11.6 GV     703
     C3R7HJ1*1C2023 06 14.33969815 49 26.825+07 04 52.50   ~6EE4 10.72GVNEOCP703
     C3R7HJ1 1C2023 06 14.34092415 50 01.900+07 08 54.96   ~6EE4 10.41GVNEOCP703
     C3R7HJ1 1C2023 06 14.34214915 50 37.223+07 12 58.54   ~6EE4 10.89GVNEOCP703
     C3R7HJ1 KC2023 06 14.36025215 58 48.590+08 07 17.50   ~6EE4       VNEOCPI52
     C3R7HJ1 KC2023 06 14.36071215 59 00.430+08 08 32.30   ~6EE4       VNEOCPI52
     C3R7HJ1 KC2023 06 14.36116915 59 12.240+08 09 50.60   ~6EE4       VNEOCPI52
     C3R7HJ1  C2023 06 14.37216316 03 00.273+08 25 52.15   ~6EE4 10.7 GVNEOCPH01
     C3R7HJ1 mC2023 06 14.37292016 04 03.960+08 40 28.00   ~6EE4 10.87GVNEOCPI52
     C3R7HJ1 mC2023 06 14.37300916 04 06.130+08 40 41.40   ~6EE4 10.57GVNEOCPI52
     C3R7HJ1 mC2023 06 14.37309916 04 08.300+08 40 54.80   ~6EE4 10.52GVNEOCPI52
     C3R7HJ1 mC2023 06 14.37318916 04 10.460+08 41 08.10   ~6EE4 10.84GVNEOCPI52
     C3R7HJ1  C2023 06 14.37661316 04 49.329+08 36 50.37   ~6EE4 10.6 GVNEOCPH01
     C3R7HJ1  C2023 06 14.38796416 09 18.051+09 03 03.39   ~6EE4 11.2 GVNEOCPH01
     C3R7HJ1  C2023 06 14.39256216 11 03.678+09 13 02.09   ~6EE4 10.7 GVNEOCPH01
     C3R7HJ1  C2023 06 15.18716116 21 30.585+07 55 07.58   ~6FE7 10.3 GVNEOCPH01
     C3R7HJ1  C2023 06 15.19034216 22 37.456+08 05 05.04   ~6FE7 10.9 GVNEOCPH01
     C3R7HJ1  C2023 06 15.19764216 25 06.436+08 27 01.91   ~6FE7 10.5 GVNEOCPH01
     C3R7HJ1  C2023 06 15.20770816 28 22.220+08 55 20.91   ~6FE7 10.5 GVNEOCPH01
     C3R7HJ1  C2023 06 15.21158816 29 35.052+09 05 43.77   ~6FE7 11.2 GVNEOCPH01

Station data:
(703) Catalina Sky Survey  (N32.417003 W110.732640)  US/Arizona.  Observers
   J. K. Hogan, H. Gröller. Measurers E. J. Christensen, D. Fay, J. B.
   Fazekas, D. C. Fuls, A. R. Gibbs, A. D. Grauer, H. Gröller, J. K. Hogan,
   R. A. Kowalski, S. M. Larson, G. J. Leonard, D. Rankin, R. L. Seaman, A.
   Serrano, F. C. Shelly, K. W. Wierzchoś. 0.68-m Schmidt + 10K CCD.
(H01) Magdalena Ridge Observatory, Socorro  (N33.984833 W107.189333)  US/New
   Mexico.  Observers W. H. Ryan, E. V. Ryan. Measurer W. H. Ryan. 2.4-m
   f/8.9 reflector + CCD.
(I52) Steward Observatory, Mt. Lemmon Station  (N32.442544 W110.788920)
   US/Arizona.  Observers A. Serrano, G. J. Leonard. Measurers E. J.
   Christensen, D. Fay, J. B. Fazekas, D. C. Fuls, A. R. Gibbs, A. D. Grauer,
   H. Gröller, J. K. Hogan, R. A. Kowalski, S. M. Larson, G. J. Leonard, D.
   Rankin, R. L. Seaman, A. Serrano, F. C. Shelly, K. W. Wierzchoś. 1.0-m
   f/2.0 prime focus + CCD.
(T05) ATLAS-HKO, Haleakala  (N20.707582 W156.257008)  US/Hawaii.  Observers
   L. Denneau, A. Heinze, H. Weiland, J. Tonry, H. Flewelling, A.
   Fitzsimmons, D. Young, B. Stalder. Measurers L. Denneau, A. Heinze, J.
   Tonry. 0.5-m f/2.0 Schmidt + CCD.
(W68) ATLAS Chile, Rio Hurtado  (S30.471010 W70.764980)  Chile.  Observers L.
   Denneau, R. Siverd, J. Tonry, H. Weiland. Measurers L. Denneau, N.
   Erasmus, A. Fitzsimmons, A. Lawrence, J. Robinson, R. Siverd, J. Tonry, H.
   Weiland. 0.5-m reflector + CCD.

Orbital elements:  2016-038C = NORAD 41590 = Falcon 9-026 Stage 2
   Perigee 2023 Jun 8.3341419 +/- 2.58e-5 TT =  8:01:09.86 (JD 2460103.8341419)
Epoch 2023 Jun  8.0 TT; AMR 0.041806 +/- 0.00196 m2/kg          Find_Orb
M 216.1694331960 +/- 0.011          (J2000 equator)
n 430.4475412897 +/- 0.000853       Peri.  230.4704581 +/- 0.0033
a 37496.438427 +/- 0.0495           Node   213.7610334 +/- 0.0010
e   0.825643308 +/- 2.73e-5         Incl.   20.7517659 +/- 0.00035
P1204.31m/0.836d           H 26.97  G  0.15   U  8.0
q 6537.7549379 +/- 1.02    Q 68455.121916 +/- 1.11
30 of 54 observations 2023 May 31-June 15; mean residual 9".941
Residuals in arcseconds: 
230509 703(3373+ 1105+)   230521 T05(1347+  188+)   230614 703 2.43- 1.77-
230509 703(3368+ 1101+)   230525 T05( 326+ 80.6+)   230614 703 .559+ .197-
230509 703(3366+ 1099+)   230525 T05( 325+ 79.7+)   230614 I52 5.25+ 2.24+
230509 703(3360+ 1095+)   230525 T05( 327+ 79.8+)   230614 I52 5.87+ .902+
230515 T05(2075+  480+)   230525 T05( 327+ 76.8+)   230614 I52 7.59+ 3.87+
230515 T05(2088+  481+)   230525 T05( 332+ 75.0+)   230614 H01 9.41+ 3.92+
230515 T05(2110+  483+)   230531 T05 4.1m+ .343-    230614 I52 8.40+ 3.66+
230520 W68(1498+  380+)   230531 T05 2.12+ .743+    230614 I52 8.73+ 3.83+
230520 W68(1467+  373+)   230531 T05 .420- .444-    230614 I52 8.73+ 3.87+
230520 W68(1449+  369+)   230531 T05 4.66- 2.06-    230614 I52 8.59+ 3.81+
230520 W68(1352+  349+)   230531 T05 4.49- 1.85-    230614 H01 11.5+ 4.66+
230520 W68(1326+  343+)   230531 T05 3.46- 1.61-    230614 H01 12.0+ 4.83+
230520 W68(1312+  340+)   230531 T05 8.46- 3.49-    230614 H01 14.1+ 5.59+
230521 T05(1230+  183+)   230605 703 .601- .050-    230615 H01 30.5- 18.4-
230521 T05(1245+  184+)   230605 703 2.08+ .961+    230615 H01 29.2- 17.5-
230521 T05(1269+  185+)   230605 703 .175- .018+    230615 H01 25.4- 14.8-
230521 T05(1289+  185+)   230605 703 2.58+ 1.14+    230615 H01 22.7- 13.5-
230521 T05(1311+  187+)   230614 703 2.91+ .922+    230615 H01 21.2- 12.6-

Ephemerides (geocentric):
Date (UTC) HH   RA             Dec           delta elong  mag " sig PA
---- --------  ------------   ------------  ------ -----  --- --------
2023 06 14 15  17 43 44.874   +16 55 47.55   67890 139.7 11.9 10.6  80
2023 06 14 16  17 56 35.970   +17 33 40.34   66660 138.7 11.9 11.8  81
2023 06 14 17  18 10 13.350   +18 10 09.75   64473 137.4 11.8 13.1  83
2023 06 14 18  18 25 08.491   +18 45 43.69   61270 135.9 11.8 14.7  84
2023 06 14 19  18 42 08.365   +19 20 34.22   56954 133.9 11.7 16.7  85
2023 06 14 20  19 02 32.274   +19 54 18.07   51370 131.3 11.5 19.4  87
2023 06 14 21  19 28 55.063   +20 24 43.00   44268 127.7 11.3 23.4  89
2023 06 14 22  20 07 28.596   +20 42 10.19   35206 121.8 11.0 30.7  92
2023 06 14 23  21 19 45.793   +19 48 17.26   23300 109.5 10.4 50.7  98
2023 06 15 00  02 35 07.341   -02 27 33.17    7563  49.9 11??  255 111
2023 06 15 01  13 29 57.616   -03 37 10.16   18846 118.6  9.7 15.7  65
2023 06 15 02  14 56 00.120   +04 26 50.50   31936 133.1 10.4 2.76  55
2023 06 15 03  15 35 54.838   +08 00 29.28   41734 137.8 10.9 1.88  58
2023 06 15 04  16 02 12.441   +10 11 57.34   49369 140.0 11.2 2.36  66
2023 06 15 05  16 22 17.692   +11 46 02.45   55377 141.0 11.4 3.13  71
2023 06 15 06  16 38 59.566   +12 59 29.97   60054 141.5 11.6 3.96  74
2023 06 15 07  16 53 40.597   +14 00 14.44   63577 141.5 11.7 4.79  76
2023 06 15 08  17 07 08.406   +14 52 34.87   66058 141.3 11.8 5.60  78
2023 06 15 09  17 19 54.489   +15 39 07.77   67566 140.9 11.8 6.42  79
2023 06 15 10  17 32 22.631   +16 21 35.41   68139 140.4 11.9 7.24  80
2023 06 15 11  17 44 53.496   +17 01 08.86   67793 139.6 11.9 8.07  82
2023 06 15 12  17 57 47.887   +17 38 39.90   66517 138.6 11.9 8.95  83
2023 06 15 13  18 11 30.001   +18 14 46.95   64281 137.4 11.8 9.89  84
2023 06 15 14  18 26 31.982   +18 49 56.48   61023 135.9 11.8 10.9  85
2023 06 15 15  18 43 42.114   +19 24 17.96   56644 134.0 11.6 12.1  87
2023 06 15 16  19 04 22.501   +19 57 22.39   50985 131.4 11.5 13.4  89
2023 06 15 17  19 31 15.010   +20 26 41.12   43787 127.7 11.3 15.1  91
2023 06 15 18  20 10 54.383   +20 41 28.70   34593 121.7 10.9 17.1  95
2023 06 15 19  21 26 57.685   +19 34 49.00   22475 108.9 10.4 19.0 102
2023 06 15 20  03 36 00.205   -08 02 09.13    6935  42.7 11?? 72.1 109
2023 06 15 21  13 38 57.046   -02 42 24.99   19742 119.5  9.8 31.2  72
2023 06 15 22  14 59 34.579   +04 50 39.30   32585 132.8 10.5 14.6  72
2023 06 15 23  15 38 17.579   +08 16 28.43   42228 137.4 10.9 8.92  73
2023 06 16 00  16 04 06.767   +10 24 32.51   49750 139.6 11.2 5.90  74
2023 06 16 01  16 23 57.992   +11 56 43.32   55666 140.6 11.4 3.94  74
2023 06 16 02  16 40 32.336   +13 08 56.51   60262 141.1 11.6 2.54  72
2023 06 16 03  16 55 09.407   +14 08 47.62   63711 141.2 11.7 1.49  68
2023 06 16 04  17 08 35.552   +15 00 26.84   66122 141.1 11.8 .710  52
2023 06 16 05  17 21 21.691   +15 46 26.07   67562 140.7 11.8 .370 168
2023 06 16 06  17 33 51.390   +16 28 24.82   68067 140.2 11.9 .657 121
2023 06 16 07  17 46 25.335   +17 07 32.33   67651 139.5 11.9 .960 112
2023 06 16 08  17 59 24.587   +17 44 38.97   66302 138.6 11.9 1.12 113
2023 06 16 09  18 13 13.903   +18 20 21.71   63986 137.4 11.8 1.08 122
2023 06 16 10  18 28 26.519   +18 55 05.06   60640 135.9 11.7 .871 149
2023 06 16 11  18 45 52.864   +19 28 54.96   56160 134.0 11.6 1.21  34
2023 06 16 12  19 06 59.696   +20 01 14.00   50380 131.4 11.5 3.29  67
2023 06 16 13  19 34 40.730   +20 29 07.77   43030 127.7 11.2 8.36  79
2023 06 16 14  20 16 10.325   +20 39 58.40   33623 121.5 10.9 22.0  87
2023 06 16 15  21 38 53.569   +19 10 48.23   21163 107.5 10.3 81.5  97
2023 06 16 16  05 31 40.758   -16 21 50.75    6511  39.7 12?? 1172 103
2023 06 16 17  13 51 09.567   -01 29 03.86   21096 120.9  9.9  130  70
2023 06 16 18  15 04 36.019   +05 22 18.57   33569 132.8 10.5 55.1  71
2023 06 16 19  15 41 36.317   +08 37 09.70   42980 137.1 11.0 34.6  72
2023 06 16 20  16 06 43.542   +10 40 27.38   50331 139.2 11.2 25.5  72
2023 06 16 21  16 26 13.619   +12 09 59.68   56107 140.3 11.4 20.4  73
2023 06 16 22  16 42 36.373   +13 20 31.84   60582 140.8 11.6 17.4  74
2023 06 16 23  16 57 07.162   +14 19 12.20   63921 140.9 11.7 15.5  74
2023 06 17 00  17 10 30.465   +15 09 58.39   66228 140.8 11.8 14.4  74
2023 06 17 01  17 23 16.346   +15 55 15.68   67565 140.5 11.8 13.9  75
2023 06 17 02  17 35 48.046   +16 36 39.70   67969 140.0 11.9 13.9  75