"Pseudo-MPEC" for 1977-093A = NORAD 10370 = Prognoz-6
Created 2018 Dec 19 0:27:35 UT using Find_Orb
Click here for an explanation of pseudo-MPECs
This object will re-enter the atmosphere in early 2019, probably on January 16. (It may be four days later, on the following orbit, but it's looking unlikely.) Click here for a plot of this object's inclination and perigee distance over time, running from shortly after its launch in 1977 to re-entry. The perigee distance has oscillated with time, but there was an overall rise during its first two decades and a gradual decline since then, eventually leading to the re-entry next year. The booster for this spacecraft shows a similar pattern, though it won't actually re-enter until 2037. 1964-054A = OGO-1> showed a similar pattern, and re-entered over Tahiti in August 2020.
With the most recent observations by Goran Gašparović, it looks as if the object will come in for a grazing re-entry at about 11:47 on 2019 January 16, passing about 70 km over the Pacific Ocean east of New Zealand. It may simply re-enter (the effects of drag on this object are, for me at least, very uncertain.) If instead it simply loses a lot of speed and makes one more orbit (as shown in the nominal re-entry ephemeris), the re-entry point becomes much less well-determined.
Astrometry: 1977-093A C2012 03 03.23301 11 32 02.65 +61 59 35.4 x16.1 V D0418703 1977-093A C2012 03 03.23642 11 31 57.07 +61 58 31.7 x15.8 V D0418703 1977-093A C2012 03 03.23985 11 31 51.20 +61 57 25.7 x16.0 V D0418703 1977-093A C2012 03 03.24323 11 31 45.22 +61 56 18.7 x16.0 V D0418703 1977-093A C2012 05 29.19583 11 12 50.68 +61 52 48.4 x18.1 V D0440703 1977-093A C2012 05 29.19985 11 12 44.24 +61 48 32.7 x17.8 V D0440703 1977-093A C2012 05 29.20395 11 12 38.19 +61 44 10.8 x17.6 V D0440703 1977-093A tC2016 07 16.16349 21 09 57.55 +28 42 37.8 x15.8 RqD0550Y00 1977-093A tC2016 07 16.16435 21 09 54.12 +28 44 57.9 x15.7 RqD0550Y00 1977-093A tC2016 07 16.16542 21 09 49.97 +28 47 50.8 x15.7 RqD0550Y00 1977-093A C2017 08 10.07712 19 56 17.09 -17 21 57.0 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 10.07770 19 56 20.16 -17 14 10.3 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 10.08946 19 57 21.80 -14 39 36.3 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 10.09004 19 57 24.96 -14 32 30.6 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 10.09064 19 57 28.12 -14 24 51.8 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 10.09122 19 57 30.84 -14 17 53.8 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 10.10030 19 58 14.64 -12 30 17.2 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 10.10088 19 58 17.72 -12 23 42.3 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 10.10152 19 58 20.83 -12 16 34.5 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 10.10210 19 58 23.19 -12 10 15.3 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 10.93663 20 51 22.81 +31 40 00.2 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 10.93721 20 51 21.99 +31 40 48.7 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 10.93780 20 51 20.61 +31 41 42.8 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 10.93838 20 51 19.99 +31 42 31.7 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 10.93897 20 51 18.97 +31 43 30.3 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 10.93955 20 51 17.72 +31 44 19.0 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 10.94016 20 51 16.65 +31 45 15.3 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 10.94074 20 51 15.85 +31 46 02.5 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 10.94132 20 51 14.54 +31 47 00.6 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 10.94190 20 51 13.81 +31 47 46.4 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 11.05167 20 47 18.03 +34 10 24.7 x16.5 V G40 1977-093A C2017 08 11.05225 20 47 17.32 +34 10 59.8 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 11.05281 20 47 15.75 +34 11 40.4 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 11.05339 20 47 14.69 +34 12 15.2 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 11.05458 20 47 11.88 +34 13 38.7 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 11.05516 20 47 10.66 +34 14 17.5 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 11.05576 20 47 09.63 +34 14 53.2 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 11.05634 20 47 08.12 +34 15 29.0 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 11.05693 20 47 06.71 +34 16 09.4 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 11.05751 20 47 05.74 +34 16 47.1 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 11.12450 20 44 59.67 +35 21 54.8 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 11.12508 20 44 59.17 +35 22 22.5 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 11.12565 20 44 58.17 +35 22 55.2 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 11.12623 20 44 57.46 +35 23 23.8 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 12.15227 21 07 11.35 +51 21 20.6 x16.8 V G40 1977-093A C2017 08 12.15285 21 07 10.89 +51 21 35.3 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 12.15341 21 07 09.91 +51 21 55.6 x16.9 V G40 1977-093A C2017 08 12.15399 21 07 09.16 +51 22 10.8 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 13.16603 22 10 48.14 +71 05 21.3 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 13.16661 22 10 49.05 +71 06 04.3 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 13.16719 22 10 50.30 +71 06 54.2 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 13.16777 22 10 50.66 +71 07 37.2 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 14.00985 20 02 18.13 -19 49 04.1 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 14.01043 20 02 19.75 -19 40 18.8 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 14.01099 20 02 21.10 -19 31 39.4 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 14.01157 20 02 22.23 -19 23 02.0 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 14.05485 20 03 49.67 -10 22 06.5 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 14.05543 20 03 50.83 -10 16 03.5 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 14.05599 20 03 51.78 -10 10 10.0 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 14.05657 20 03 53.14 -10 04 13.1 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 14.08985 20 04 56.91 -04 59 26.2 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 14.09043 20 04 58.44 -04 54 45.0 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 14.09102 20 04 59.59 -04 50 00.7 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 14.09160 20 05 00.66 -04 45 20.8 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 14.13098 20 06 28.84 -00 04 44.6 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 14.13155 20 06 30.59 -00 01 10.5 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 14.13216 20 06 32.05 +00 02 34.8 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 14.13273 20 06 33.49 +00 06 14.1 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 14.13330 20 06 34.93 +00 09 50.5 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 14.13388 20 06 36.25 +00 13 21.3 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 14.91443 20 52 20.64 +32 19 13.8 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 14.98588 20 50 02.12 +33 57 11.5 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 14.98646 20 50 00.65 +33 57 55.8 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 14.98706 20 49 59.27 +33 58 42.2 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 14.98764 20 49 58.08 +33 59 23.6 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 15.18311 20 44 35.48 +37 00 59.7 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 15.18369 20 44 35.12 +37 01 22.4 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 15.18483 20 44 34.99 +37 02 07.6 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 15.18539 20 44 34.72 +37 02 30.9 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 15.18597 20 44 34.46 +37 02 53.7 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 20.20047 21 08 03.41 +52 58 47.8 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 20.20105 21 08 03.87 +52 59 01.5 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 20.20163 21 08 03.82 +52 59 19.0 x16.5 V G40 1977-093A C2017 08 20.20221 21 08 03.71 +52 59 32.3 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 20.20278 21 08 03.81 +52 59 48.8 x16.4 V G40 1977-093A C2017 08 20.20336 21 08 03.75 +52 59 59.8 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 22.12521 20 14 57.74 +09 13 07.8 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 22.12579 20 14 58.59 +09 15 25.1 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 22.12638 20 14 59.11 +09 17 34.4 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 22.12696 20 14 59.94 +09 19 44.2 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 29.85016 20 25 05.00 -06 56 06.9 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 29.85074 20 25 03.54 -06 51 04.3 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 29.85134 20 25 02.29 -06 45 40.2 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 29.85192 20 25 01.25 -06 40 36.0 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 29.90558 20 22 57.60 +00 07 38.8 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 29.90616 20 22 56.31 +00 11 25.8 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 29.90672 20 22 54.84 +00 15 09.4 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 29.90730 20 22 53.66 +00 18 53.7 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 29.91920 20 22 25.23 +01 34 06.7 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 29.91978 20 22 23.95 +01 37 36.2 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 29.92037 20 22 22.58 +01 41 12.1 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 29.92095 20 22 21.37 +01 44 41.3 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 29.92149 20 22 20.02 +01 48 02.6 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 29.92207 20 22 18.56 +01 51 32.3 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 29.92976 20 22 00.84 +02 37 09.4 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 29.93034 20 21 59.26 +02 40 30.1 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 29.93090 20 21 57.95 +02 43 45.7 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 29.93148 20 21 56.75 +02 47 04.7 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 29.93205 20 21 55.42 +02 50 21.5 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 29.93263 20 21 54.20 +02 53 40.3 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 29.97854 20 20 16.30 +06 50 51.7 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 29.97912 20 20 15.59 +06 53 32.1 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 29.97970 20 20 14.33 +06 56 13.4 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 29.98028 20 20 13.27 +06 58 52.7 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 29.99601 20 19 45.36 +08 08 53.4 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 29.99659 20 19 44.47 +08 11 22.4 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 29.99714 20 19 43.31 +08 13 44.6 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 29.99772 20 19 42.70 +08 16 12.5 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 30.05106 20 18 39.48 +11 39 54.1 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 30.05164 20 18 38.87 +11 41 50.4 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 30.05220 20 18 38.53 +11 43 45.4 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 30.05278 20 18 38.37 +11 45 40.4 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 30.05334 20 18 37.85 +11 47 36.8 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 30.05392 20 18 37.61 +11 49 32.3 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 30.09310 20 18 28.70 +13 52 03.7 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 30.09368 20 18 29.10 +13 53 44.6 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 30.09424 20 18 29.12 +13 55 20.9 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 30.09482 20 18 29.12 +13 56 59.5 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 30.11006 20 18 35.46 +14 39 39.8 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 30.11064 20 18 35.57 +14 41 11.5 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 30.11121 20 18 35.91 +14 42 48.8 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 30.11234 20 18 36.69 +14 45 51.4 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 30.11292 20 18 37.27 +14 47 24.7 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 30.91952 20 53 51.85 +36 44 16.6 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 30.92010 20 53 50.76 +36 44 54.2 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 30.92067 20 53 49.48 +36 45 37.6 x G40 1977-093A C2017 08 30.92125 20 53 48.55 +36 46 16.7 x G40 1977-093A C2017 09 07.86360 20 56 36.68 +37 27 54.1 x G40 1977-093A C2017 09 07.86534 20 56 34.12 +37 29 58.5 x G40 1977-093A C2017 09 07.86591 20 56 32.99 +37 30 46.2 x G40 1977-093A C2017 09 07.86649 20 56 32.14 +37 31 21.7 x G40 1977-093A C2017 09 08.14483 20 49 26.05 +41 15 04.4 x G40 1977-093A C2017 09 08.14541 20 49 26.00 +41 15 21.6 x G40 1977-093A C2017 09 08.14601 20 49 26.03 +41 15 37.4 x G40 1977-093A C2017 09 08.14659 20 49 26.30 +41 15 52.1 x G40 1977-093A C2017 09 08.14720 20 49 26.29 +41 16 14.1 x G40 1977-093A C2017 09 08.14778 20 49 26.45 +41 16 26.7 x G40 1977-093A C2017 09 17.95054 00 34 54.38 +77 13 33.0 x G40 1977-093A C2017 09 17.95112 00 35 19.42 +77 14 55.0 x G40 1977-093A C2017 09 17.95171 00 35 47.56 +77 16 30.4 x G40 1977-093A C2017 09 17.95229 00 36 11.11 +77 17 44.3 x G40 1977-093A C2017 09 17.95287 00 36 37.85 +77 19 12.8 x G40 1977-093A C2017 09 17.95345 00 37 04.70 +77 20 36.6 x G40 1977-093A C2017 10 06.83952 21 36 20.14 +56 47 14.8 x G40 1977-093A C2017 10 06.84010 21 36 19.41 +56 47 57.5 x G40 1977-093A C2017 10 06.84073 21 36 18.27 +56 48 40.1 x G40 1977-093A C2017 10 06.84131 21 36 17.91 +56 49 18.0 x G40 1977-093A C2017 10 30.88843 21 53 30.50 +62 55 36.9 x G40 1977-093A C2017 10 30.88901 21 53 30.01 +62 56 12.7 x G40 1977-093A C2017 10 30.88956 21 53 29.47 +62 56 51.4 x G40 1977-093A C2017 10 30.89014 21 53 29.11 +62 57 26.8 x G40 1977-093A C2017 10 31.06167 21 58 17.02 +65 21 26.3 x G40 1977-093A C2017 10 31.06225 21 58 20.21 +65 21 48.8 x G40 1977-093A C2017 10 31.06339 21 58 26.76 +65 22 35.6 x G40 1977-093A C2017 10 31.06395 21 58 30.21 +65 22 59.5 x G40 1977-093A C2017 10 31.06453 21 58 33.30 +65 23 22.5 x G40 1977-093A C2017 11 02.92278 21 03 02.81 +48 16 53.8 x G40 1977-093A C2017 11 02.92336 21 03 02.04 +48 17 07.3 x G40 1977-093A C2017 11 02.92392 21 03 01.20 +48 17 26.7 x G40 1977-093A C2017 11 02.92450 21 03 01.03 +48 17 42.1 x G40 1977-093A C2017 11 02.92506 21 03 00.26 +48 18 00.6 x G40 1977-093A C2017 11 02.92564 21 02 59.70 +48 18 13.9 x G40 1977-093A C2017 11 02.96809 21 02 33.74 +48 36 23.1 x G40 1977-093A C2017 11 02.96867 21 02 33.51 +48 36 33.7 x G40 1977-093A C2017 11 02.96926 21 02 33.44 +48 36 50.0 x G40 1977-093A C2017 11 02.96984 21 02 33.44 +48 37 00.8 x G40 1977-093A C2017 11 03.01324 21 02 46.91 +48 52 32.3 x G40 1977-093A C2017 11 03.01382 21 02 47.23 +48 52 42.6 x G40 1977-093A C2017 11 03.01440 21 02 47.42 +48 52 53.9 x G40 1977-093A C2017 11 03.01498 21 02 48.27 +48 53 04.7 x G40 1977-093A C2017 12 20.81556 21 18 06.68 +54 36 49.9 x G40 1977-093A C2017 12 20.81668 21 18 06.31 +54 37 25.2 x G40 77093A C2018 04 19.76857 20 02 45.01 +20 34 38.9 x q Q62 77093A C2018 04 19.76942 20 02 44.44 +20 36 34.6 x q Q62 77093A C2018 04 19.77199 20 02 42.75 +20 42 19.4 x q Q62 77093A C2018 04 19.77284 20 02 42.19 +20 44 18.3 x q Q62 77093A C2018 04 19.77354 20 02 41.70 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T05 A107p2k C2018 06 23.86434 20 59 42.95 +44 33 49.5 x17.0 Rq C42 A107p2k C2018 06 23.86476 20 59 42.66 +44 34 04.4 x16.9 Rq C42 77093A C2018 08 16.04790 19 32 48.00 +18 34 40.2 q G40 77093A C2018 08 16.04848 19 32 48.54 +18 35 45.7 q G40 77093A C2018 08 16.04884 19 32 48.85 +18 36 32.5 q G40 77093A C2018 08 16.04942 19 32 49.82 +18 37 41.9 q G40 77093A C2018 08 16.04983 19 32 50.24 +18 38 35.2 q G40 77093A C2018 08 16.05041 19 32 50.66 +18 39 31.8 q G40 77093A C2018 08 16.13840 19 35 37.39 +21 08 44.5 q G40 77093A C2018 08 16.13898 19 35 38.88 +21 09 30.1 q G40 77093A C2018 08 16.13935 19 35 39.86 +21 10 03.5 q G40 77093A C2018 08 16.13993 19 35 41.63 +21 10 50.2 q G40 77093A C2018 08 16.14036 19 35 42.68 +21 11 28.3 q G40 77093A C2018 08 16.14094 19 35 44.14 +21 12 11.4 q G40 77093A C2018 08 31.87062 19 44 43.89 +20 51 58.0 q G40 77093A C2018 08 31.87120 19 44 43.76 +20 53 06.1 q G40 77093A C2018 08 31.87156 19 44 43.53 +20 53 51.8 q G40 77093A C2018 08 31.87214 19 44 43.24 +20 54 59.0 q G40 77093A C2018 08 31.87257 19 44 42.96 +20 55 53.6 q G40 77093A C2018 08 31.87315 19 44 42.86 +20 57 00.7 q G40 77093A C2018 09 07.90237 22 19 07.39 +54 40 14.2 q G40 77093A C2018 09 07.90295 22 19 10.67 +54 41 11.2 q G40 77093A C2018 09 07.90332 22 19 13.08 +54 41 50.1 q G40 77093A C2018 09 07.90390 22 19 16.36 +54 42 41.7 q G40 77093A C2018 09 24.92996 19 53 34.55 +29 25 30.4 q G40 77093A C2018 09 24.93054 19 53 34.41 +29 25 49.6 q G40 77093A C2018 09 24.93097 19 53 34.10 +29 26 06.9 q G40 77093A C2018 09 24.93155 19 53 33.84 +29 26 20.7 q G40 77093A C2018 12 03.81609 22 30 25.09 +54 08 44.2 q G40 77093A C2018 12 03.81667 22 30 30.07 +54 09 17.7 q G40 77093A C2018 12 03.81702 22 30 33.30 +54 09 40.4 q G40 77093A C2018 12 03.89220 22 45 32.36 +55 15 21.4 q G40 77093A C2018 12 03.89278 22 45 41.18 +55 15 45.0 q G40 77093A C2018 12 03.89315 22 45 47.46 +55 16 01.5 q G40 77093A C2018 12 03.89373 22 45 56.31 +55 16 25.6 q G40 77093A C2018 12 03.95393 23 07 46.72 +55 48 52.1 q G40 77093A C2018 12 03.95451 23 08 02.86 +55 49 02.5 q G40 77093A C2018 12 03.95488 23 08 14.13 +55 49 08.7 q G40 77093A C2018 12 03.95546 23 08 30.82 +55 49 18.3 q G40 77093A C2018 12 03.95588 23 08 43.27 +55 49 26.5 q G40 77093A C2018 12 03.95646 23 09 00.03 +55 49 35.8 q G40 77093A C2018 12 04.01449 23 49 39.91 +55 34 43.1 q G40 77093A C2018 12 04.01507 23 50 14.99 +55 34 00.7 q G40 Station data: (703) Catalina Sky Survey (N32.417006 W110.732640) US/Arizona. Observers B. M. Africano, J. D. Ahern, E. C. Beshore, A. Boattini, E. J. Christensen, G. A. Farneth, D. C. Fuls, A. R. Gibbs, A. D. Grauer, H. Groeller, R. E. Hill, J. A. Johnson, R. A. Kowalski, S. M. Larson, G. J. Leonard, R. G. Matheny, R. H. McNaught, R. L. Seaman, F. C. Shelly. 0.68 m Schmidt + 4K CCD + 10K CCD. (C42) Xingming Observatory, Mt. Nanshan (N43.471021 E87.177800) China. Observer X. Gao. Measurer Q.-Z. Ye. 0.6-m reflector + CCD. (G40) Slooh.com Canary Islands Observatory (N28.299720 W16.508260) Canary Islands (Spain). Observer G. Gašparović. Measurers G. Gasparovic, Y. Chen, G. Y. Gašparović. 0.43-m f/6.8 Corrected Dall-Kirkham + CCD. (Q62) iTelescope Observatory, Siding Spring (S31.273289 E149.064420) Australia/NSW. Observer G. Gašparović. Measurers G. Gasparovic, Y. Chen, G. Y. Gašparović. 0.51-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD + focal reducer. (T05) ATLAS-HKO, Haleakala (N20.707582 W156.257008) US/Hawaii. Observers L. Denneau, A. Heinze, H. Weiland, J. Tonry, B. Stalder, A. Sherstyuk, H. Flewelling, A. Fitzsimmons, D. Young. Measurers L. Denneau, A. Heinze, J. Tonry. 0.5-m f/2.0 Schmidt + CCD. (Y00) SONEAR Observatory, Oliveira (S20.715082 W44.784960) Brazil. Observers C. Jacques, E. Pimentel, J. Barros. Measurer C. Jacques. 0.28-m f/2.2 astrograph + CCD. Orbital elements: 1977-093A = NORAD 10370 = Prognoz-6 Perigee 2018 Nov 30.176014 +/- 1.64e-5 TT = 4:13:27 (JD 2458452.676014) Epoch 2018 Dec 1.0 TT; AMR 0.011757 +/- 0.000306 m2/kg Gray M 75.144519915 +/- 0.0015 (J2000 equator) n 91.196354627 +/- 1.48e-5 Peri. 230.374414 +/- 0.00051 a105507.9505 +/- 0.0114 Node 272.714329 +/- 0.00051 e 0.93076984 +/- 3.09e-6 Incl. 55.034219 +/- 0.00018 P5684.33m/3.947d U 5.3 q 7304.331641 +/- 0.326 Q 203711.5694 +/- 0.315 41 of 237 observations 2018 Aug. 16-Dec. 4; mean residual 6".741 Orbital elements (near re-entry) : 1977-093A = NORAD 10370 = Prognoz-6 Perigee 2019 Jan 16.491424 +/- 0.000101 TT = 11:47:39 (JD 2458499.991424) Epoch 2019 Jan 16.4 TT; AMR 0.011852 +/- 0.0003 m^2/kg Gray M 351.657460943 +/- 0.009 (J2000 equator) n 91.251442228 +/- 0.0015 Peri. 232.377450 +/- 0.00040 a105465.4835 +/- 1.15 Node 267.856039 +/- 0.0006 e 0.93895882 +/- 4.15e-6 Incl. 52.408326 +/- 0.00020 P5680.90m/3.945d U 8.4 q 6437.737359 +/- 0.449 Q 204493.2296 +/- 2.24 41 of 237 observations 2018 Aug. 16-Dec. 4; mean residual 6".741
Residuals in arcseconds: 120303 703(80.6+ 175-) 170815 G40(27.9- 132-) 171030 G40(67.4- 146-) 120303 703(80.8+ 175-) 170820 G40(25.2- 117-) 171030 G40(68.1- 143-) 120303 703(80.7+ 175-) 170820 G40(21.1- 118-) 171030 G40(67.5- 145-) 120303 703(80.7+ 175-) 170820 G40(21.8- 116-) 171031 G40(79.2- 174-) 120529 703(73.5+ 176-) 170820 G40(23.0- 117-) 171031 G40(80.2- 175-) 120529 703(73.0+ 177-) 170820 G40(22.4- 115-) 171031 G40(81.0- 176-) 120529 703(73.4+ 176-) 170820 G40(23.4- 119-) 171031 G40(80.1- 175-) 160716 Y00(24.3- 425-) 170822 G40( 132- 493-) 171031 G40(82.4- 176-) 160716 Y00(25.3- 424-) 170822 G40( 128- 486-) 171102 G40(20.8- 81.3-) 160716 Y00(25.1- 424-) 170822 G40( 129- 490-) 171102 G40(22.5- 84.3-) 170810 G40( 482- 1869-) 170822 G40( 126- 490-) 171102 G40(25.1- 80.9-) 170810 G40( 482- 1875-) 170829 G40( 134- 1124-) 171102 G40(21.0- 81.9-) 170810 G40( 442- 1681-) 170829 G40( 138- 1127-) 171102 G40(23.0- 79.3-) 170810 G40( 437- 1680-) 170829 G40( 137- 1117-) 171102 G40(22.9- 82.4-) 170810 G40( 433- 1658-) 170829 G40( 134- 1116-) 171102 G40(22.0- 80.7-) 170810 G40( 433- 1660-) 170829 G40( 137- 812-) 171102 G40(23.2- 83.6-) 170810 G40( 410- 1525-) 170829 G40( 135- 811-) 171102 G40(22.8- 81.0-) 170810 G40( 404- 1518-) 170829 G40( 137- 804-) 171102 G40(21.8- 83.6-) 170810 G40( 400- 1517-) 170829 G40( 134- 804-) 171103 G40(20.7- 81.0-) 170810 G40( 404- 1522-) 170829 G40( 137- 753-) 171103 G40(22.2- 82.3-) 170810 G40(33.6- 166-) 170829 G40( 135- 754-) 171103 G40(25.0- 82.6-) 170810 G40(31.1- 170-) 170829 G40( 135- 752-) 171103 G40(21.4- 83.3-) 170810 G40(35.5- 169-) 170829 G40( 133- 752-) 171220 G40(26.3- 84.7-) 170810 G40(30.4- 172-) 170829 G40( 134- 745-) 171220 G40(25.1- 83.1-) 170810 G40(30.1- 167-) 170829 G40( 135- 744-) 180419 Q62(83.0- 181-) 170810 G40(33.0- 170-) 170829 G40( 131- 716-) 180419 Q62(83.3- 181-) 170810 G40(32.8- 168-) 170829 G40( 135- 715-) 180419 Q62(83.3- 183-) 170810 G40(29.7- 173-) 170829 G40( 135- 713-) 180419 Q62(83.1- 178-) 170810 G40(33.2- 167-) 170829 G40( 133- 713-) 180419 Q62(83.2- 176-) 170810 G40(29.2- 173-) 170829 G40( 133- 711-) 180419 Q62(82.8- 178-) 170811 G40(35.3- 154-) 170829 G40( 131- 711-) 180623 T05(14.4- 24.9-) 170811 G40(28.4- 158-) 170829 G40( 128- 574-) 180623 T05(14.2- 24.8-) 170811 G40(32.7- 154-) 170829 G40( 122- 574-) 180623 T05(14.7- 24.0-) 170811 G40(30.1- 157-) 170829 G40( 125- 572-) 180623 T05(14.3- 24.9-) 170811 G40(32.8- 152-) 170829 G40( 124- 572-) 180623 T05(14.3- 24.9-) 170811 G40(32.3- 151-) 170829 G40( 123- 535-) 180623 T05(14.0- 25.2-) 170811 G40(28.9- 154-) 170829 G40( 121- 534-) 180623 C42(15.3- 24.8-) 170811 G40(32.1- 156-) 170829 G40( 125- 532-) 180623 C42(15.3- 25.1-) 170811 G40(33.7- 154-) 170829 G40( 120- 531-) 180816 G40 3.21+ 11.1+ 170811 G40(30.2- 154-) 170830 G40( 109- 433-) 180816 G40 1.12+ 3.75+ 170811 G40(33.0- 147-) 170830 G40( 112- 435-) 180816 G40 .570- 5.46+ 170811 G40(28.5- 150-) 170830 G40( 111- 433-) 180816 G40 3.35+ 2.40+ 170811 G40(30.3- 146-) 170830 G40( 108- 435-) 180816 G40 2.31+ 4.60+ 170811 G40(28.5- 148-) 170830 G40( 110- 432-) 180816 G40 1.69- 10.9- 170812 G40(27.4- 117-) 170830 G40( 108- 433-) 180816 G40 2.50+ 5.96+ 170812 G40(23.9- 122-) 170830 G40( 101- 380-) 180816 G40 1.85+ 3.45+ 170812 G40(25.5- 121-) 170830 G40(97.1- 379-) 180816 G40 1.80+ 6.22+ 170812 G40(24.8- 125-) 170830 G40(98.4- 379-) 180816 G40 4.93+ 4.99+ 170813 G40( 115- 248-) 170830 G40( 100- 380-) 180816 G40 3.53+ 7.63+ 170813 G40( 115- 250-) 170830 G40(94.7- 363-) 180816 G40 2.17+ 3.00+ 170813 G40( 113- 246-) 170830 G40(97.8- 365-) 180831 G40 2.65- 2.67- 170813 G40( 116- 248-) 170830 G40(97.7- 360-) 180831 G40 .747- 5.28- 170814 G40( 425- 2013-) 170830 G40(96.2- 360-) 180831 G40 1.64- 3.38- 170814 G40( 420- 2005-) 170830 G40(93.0- 360-) 180831 G40 1.91- 6.61- 170814 G40( 418- 1982-) 170830 G40(25.5- 122-) 180831 G40 3.00- 4.12- 170814 G40( 420- 1976-) 170830 G40(24.8- 125-) 180831 G40 .543- 7.16- 170814 G40( 330- 1369-) 170830 G40(26.5- 122-) 180907 G40 .581- 3.31- 170814 G40( 328- 1362-) 170830 G40(23.8- 124-) 180907 G40 2.90- 4.43- 170814 G40( 329- 1351-) 170907 G40(26.1- 115-) 180907 G40 1.62- 2.60- 170814 G40( 324- 1348-) 170907 G40(23.5- 116-) 180907 G40 3.93- 9.12- 170814 G40( 279- 1069-) 170907 G40(26.0- 110-) 180924 G40 2.00- 4.14+ 170814 G40( 273- 1067-) 170907 G40(25.0- 116-) 180924 G40 .927+ .556+ 170814 G40( 273- 1065-) 170908 G40(20.3- 105-) 180924 G40 .373+ 1.00+ 170814 G40( 273- 1062-) 170908 G40(21.9- 104-) 180924 G40 1.65+ 7.87- 170814 G40( 229- 839-) 170908 G40(22.7- 105-) 181203 G40 8.51+ 6.11+ 170814 G40( 224- 838-) 170908 G40(20.8- 107-) 181203 G40 6.84+ 4.48+ 170814 G40( 224- 839-) 170908 G40(22.3- 103-) 181203 G40 7.73+ 6.00+ 170814 G40( 223- 831-) 170908 G40(21.8- 107-) 181203 G40 5.71+ 4.13+ 170814 G40( 222- 826-) 170917 G40( 422- 208-) 181203 G40 1.58+ 2.61+ 170814 G40( 224- 829-) 170917 G40( 427- 211-) 181203 G40 4.32+ 3.13+ 170814 G40(27.2- 157-) 170917 G40( 422- 202-) 181203 G40 .214- 2.27+ 170814 G40(27.6- 151-) 170917 G40( 432- 213-) 181203 G40 1.14- .893+ 170814 G40(30.1- 150-) 170917 G40( 432- 210-) 181203 G40 6.75- .693+ 170814 G40(30.9- 149-) 170917 G40( 432- 211-) 181203 G40 2.57- .242+ 170814 G40(29.8- 151-) 171006 G40(40.7- 104-) 181203 G40 4.96- .408- 170815 G40(26.4- 131-) 171006 G40(40.2- 103-) 181203 G40 4.18- .506+ 170815 G40(28.4- 132-) 171006 G40(42.6- 105-) 181203 G40 7.49- .067- 170815 G40(25.6- 132-) 171006 G40(39.1- 109-) 181204 G40 35.7- 1.95+ 170815 G40(26.8- 131-) 171030 G40(67.1- 144-) 181204 G40 30.6- .631+ Ephemerides (geocentric): Date (UTC) HH RA Dec delta elong " sig PA ---- -- -- -- ------------- ----------- ------ ----- ---- --- 2018 12 06 00 20 25 56.10 +38 32 56.2 203299 79.4 1.13 32 2018 12 06 01 20 27 21.27 +38 48 04.4 203495 79.8 1.15 32 2018 12 06 02 20 28 46.92 +39 03 07.5 203576 80.1 1.16 32 2018 12 06 03 20 30 13.17 +39 18 06.5 203540 80.5 1.18 32 2018 12 06 04 20 31 40.12 +39 33 02.2 203388 80.8 1.19 32 2018 12 06 05 20 33 07.88 +39 47 55.8 203119 81.2 1.21 32 2018 12 06 06 20 34 36.56 +40 02 48.1 202734 81.5 1.22 33 2018 12 06 07 20 36 06.29 +40 17 40.0 202231 81.9 1.23 33 2018 12 06 08 20 37 37.18 +40 32 32.4 201610 82.2 1.25 33 2018 12 06 09 20 39 09.38 +40 47 26.5 200871 82.6 1.26 33 2018 12 06 10 20 40 43.01 +41 02 22.9 200013 82.9 1.27 33 2018 12 06 11 20 42 18.23 +41 17 22.9 199035 83.3 1.29 33 2018 12 06 12 20 43 55.20 +41 32 27.2 197935 83.7 1.30 34 2018 12 06 13 20 45 34.08 +41 47 37.1 196712 84.1 1.31 34 2018 12 06 14 20 47 15.07 +42 02 53.5 195365 84.4 1.32 34 2018 12 06 15 20 48 58.36 +42 18 17.5 193893 84.8 1.34 34 2018 12 06 16 20 50 44.17 +42 33 50.4 192292 85.2 1.35 34 2018 12 06 17 20 52 32.73 +42 49 33.3 190562 85.6 1.36 34 2018 12 06 18 20 54 24.32 +43 05 27.5 188700 86.0 1.37 35 2018 12 06 19 20 56 19.21 +43 21 34.4 186704 86.4 1.38 35 2018 12 06 20 20 58 17.73 +43 37 55.4 184570 86.9 1.39 35 2018 12 06 21 21 00 20.24 +43 54 32.2 182296 87.3 1.40 35 2018 12 06 22 21 02 27.14 +44 11 26.5 179878 87.8 1.41 35 2018 12 06 23 21 04 38.87 +44 28 40.1 177313 88.2 1.42 36 2018 12 07 00 21 06 55.95 +44 46 14.9 174597 88.7 1.43 36 2018 12 07 01 21 09 18.96 +45 04 13.3 171724 89.2 1.44 36 2018 12 07 02 21 11 48.56 +45 22 37.5 168691 89.7 1.45 36 2018 12 07 03 21 14 25.52 +45 41 30.4 165491 90.2 1.46 37 2018 12 07 04 21 17 10.73 +46 00 54.8 162118 90.8 1.46 37 2018 12 07 05 21 20 05.21 +46 20 54.0 158565 91.4 1.47 37 2018 12 07 06 21 23 10.20 +46 41 31.8 154825 92.0 1.47 37 2018 12 07 07 21 26 27.15 +47 02 52.2 150889 92.6 1.48 38 2018 12 07 08 21 29 57.78 +47 24 59.9 146747 93.3 1.48 38 2018 12 07 09 21 33 44.21 +47 48 00.2 142389 94.0 1.48 38 2018 12 07 10 21 37 49.01 +48 11 59.1 137800 94.8 1.47 38 2018 12 07 11 21 42 15.38 +48 37 03.4 132967 95.6 1.47 39 2018 12 07 12 21 47 07.35 +49 03 20.8 127872 96.5 1.46 39 2018 12 07 13 21 52 30.07 +49 30 59.9 122496 97.5 1.44 39 2018 12 07 14 21 58 30.24 +50 00 10.4 116816 98.5 1.41 39 2018 12 07 15 22 05 16.81 +50 31 02.8 110802 99.7 1.38 39 2018 12 07 16 22 13 01.96 +51 03 47.6 104420 101.0 1.33 39 2018 12 07 17 22 22 02.87 +51 38 34.1 97628 102.5 1.26 38 2018 12 07 18 22 32 44.52 +52 15 25.9 90371 104.3 1.16 36 2018 12 07 19 22 45 44.90 +52 54 11.5 82579 106.3 1.02 31 2018 12 07 20 23 02 04.99 +53 33 58.7 74157 108.8 .848 19 2018 12 07 21 23 23 29.36 +54 12 04.8 64970 112.0 .749 168 2018 12 07 22 23 53 13.64 +54 40 14.4 54817 116.3 1.24 126 2018 12 07 23 00 38 07.47 +54 30 32.7 43370 122.8 3.08 112 2018 12 08 00 01 54 42.29 +51 41 01.7 30028 134.6 9.15 117 2018 12 08 01 04 34 01.10 +29 34 46.2 13716 171.3 56.5 139 2018 12 08 02 16 24 27.81 -31 48 11.8 14049 11.7 61.7 42 2018 12 08 03 17 57 42.19 -03 48 09.2 30303 23.8 13.7 33 2018 12 08 04 18 24 37.85 +05 41 17.6 43600 35.4 6.57 32 2018 12 08 05 18 39 50.01 +10 55 05.9 55018 41.8 3.98 32 2018 12 08 06 18 50 18.94 +14 24 00.0 65151 46.1 2.68 32 2018 12 08 07 18 58 17.49 +16 57 40.1 74322 49.3 1.89 32 2018 12 08 08 19 04 43.71 +18 57 54.8 82732 51.8 1.38 33 2018 12 08 09 19 10 07.88 +20 36 02.4 90514 53.8 1.00 33 2018 12 08 10 19 14 47.71 +21 58 35.7 97762 55.6 .726 34 2018 12 08 11 19 18 54.40 +23 09 40.0 104547 57.0 .509 35 Ephemerides near re-entry Longitudes are East. Altitudes are above the ellipsoid. 'svel' is the velocity relative to the geocenter; you'll see that it increases as the object approaches the earth, but the object then starts to slow down at about 11:46 UTC as it enters the upper atmosphere. After this point, there is a great deal of uncertainty. The drag is modelled with an "average" atmosphere and an assumed area/mass ratio based on how the object responded to solar radiation pressure; the AMR for atmospheric drag may be considerably different. Nominally, it goes through the atmosphere having lost more than 2 km/s, and re-enters on the following perigee. But if it broke up the first time, or re-entered the first time, it would not surprise me at all. The nominal trajectory shown below after 11:46 is plausible, but probably close to being fictional. Date (UTC) HH:MM:SS lon lat alt (km) svel ---- -- -- -------- -------- -------- ---------- ----- 2019 01 16 11:40:00 167.7536 -13.1970 708.490 10.43 2019 01 16 11:40:10 168.2320 -13.8317 677.868 10.45 2019 01 16 11:40:20 168.7177 -14.4707 647.868 10.48 2019 01 16 11:40:30 169.2109 -15.1140 618.500 10.50 2019 01 16 11:40:40 169.7119 -15.7614 589.777 10.52 2019 01 16 11:40:50 170.2209 -16.4126 561.709 10.54 2019 01 16 11:41:00 170.7379 -17.0676 534.308 10.57 2019 01 16 11:41:10 171.2633 -17.7262 507.585 10.59 2019 01 16 11:41:20 171.7973 -18.3882 481.551 10.61 2019 01 16 11:41:30 172.3401 -19.0534 456.218 10.63 2019 01 16 11:41:40 172.8919 -19.7216 431.595 10.65 2019 01 16 11:41:50 173.4529 -20.3925 407.695 10.67 2019 01 16 11:42:00 174.0234 -21.0659 384.527 10.69 2019 01 16 11:42:10 174.6036 -21.7417 362.103 10.70 2019 01 16 11:42:20 175.1938 -22.4195 340.432 10.72 2019 01 16 11:42:30 175.7942 -23.0990 319.524 10.74 2019 01 16 11:42:40 176.4051 -23.7800 299.390 10.76 2019 01 16 11:42:50 177.0268 -24.4622 280.038 10.77 2019 01 16 11:43:00 177.6594 -25.1454 261.479 10.79 2019 01 16 11:43:10 178.3034 -25.8291 243.721 10.80 2019 01 16 11:43:20 178.9589 -26.5130 226.774 10.82 2019 01 16 11:43:30 179.6263 -27.1969 210.645 10.83 2019 01 16 11:43:40 180.3059 -27.8804 195.343 10.84 2019 01 16 11:43:50 180.9978 -28.5630 180.875 10.86 2019 01 16 11:44:00 181.7025 -29.2445 167.249 10.87 2019 01 16 11:44:10 182.4201 -29.9245 154.473 10.88 2019 01 16 11:44:20 183.1511 -30.6026 142.552 10.89 2019 01 16 11:44:30 183.8956 -31.2783 131.493 10.90 2019 01 16 11:44:40 184.6540 -31.9513 121.302 10.91 2019 01 16 11:44:50 185.4266 -32.6211 111.984 10.92 2019 01 16 11:45:00 186.2135 -33.2872 103.545 10.92 2019 01 16 11:45:10 187.0152 -33.9493 95.989 10.93 2019 01 16 11:45:20 187.8315 -34.6067 89.321 10.93 2019 01 16 11:45:30 188.6621 -35.2583 83.548 10.91 2019 01 16 11:45:40 189.5055 -35.9027 78.675 10.87 2019 01 16 11:45:50 190.3588 -36.5370 74.703 10.78 2019 01 16 11:46:00 191.2176 -37.1579 71.617 10.63 2019 01 16 11:46:10 192.0758 -37.7612 69.378 10.41 2019 01 16 11:46:20 192.9279 -38.3437 67.917 10.14 2019 01 16 11:46:30 193.7695 -38.9031 67.139 9.843 2019 01 16 11:46:40 194.5987 -39.4390 66.938 9.548 2019 01 16 11:46:50 195.4153 -39.9524 67.210 9.272 2019 01 16 11:47:00 196.2206 -40.4449 67.861 9.028 2019 01 16 11:47:10 197.0170 -40.9188 68.813 8.818 2019 01 16 11:47:20 197.8070 -41.3760 70.002 8.644 2019 01 16 11:47:30 198.5933 -41.8189 71.379 8.505 2019 01 16 11:47:40 199.3788 -42.2490 72.906 8.395 2019 01 16 11:47:50 200.1658 -42.6681 74.555 8.311 2019 01 16 11:48:00 200.9561 -43.0772 76.306 8.246 2019 01 16 11:48:10 201.7515 -43.4772 78.143 8.196 2019 01 16 11:48:20 202.5532 -43.8688 80.056 8.159 2019 01 16 11:48:30 203.3623 -44.2524 82.036 8.131 2019 01 16 11:48:40 204.1795 -44.6283 84.077 8.111 2019 01 16 11:48:50 205.0057 -44.9967 86.176 8.096 2019 01 16 11:49:00 205.8412 -45.3577 88.329 8.084 2019 01 16 11:49:10 206.6864 -45.7113 90.535 8.076 2019 01 16 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