"Pseudo-MPEC" for 2018-103B = NORAD 43846 = Chang'e 4 booster
Created 2019 May 7 1:28:58 UT using Find_Orb
Click here for an explanation of pseudo-MPECs
TLEs are available for this object. (Currently running to January 2020. By then, we'll probably get more observations.) Space-Track had TLEs for this object, but they involved the object being in low-earth orbit and were essentially works of fiction.
You can click here for a more current version of this pseudo-MPEC, incorporating some recent observations.
Jost Jahn was able to image this object in mid-March from (C95) ROTAT (click here for a timelapse video), with further data the next day from Masayaki Suzuki at (U69). Jost saw a possible light-curve of about 20 minutes, which would be unusually long for an empty booster. At the following perigee on March 30, Jost again got data on the object, and CSS swept it up the next day in the course of routine asteroid surveying.
(An update : Jost got another lightcurve on 2019 May 5.89 showing a period of either 623 seconds or 1246 seconds.
Since then, the object has been picked up by CSS a few times, and Jost has made some targeted observations. So the orbit has been quite well-determined since then.
With the new data, the effects of solar radiation pressure are now noticeable; we have a reasonably well-determined area/mass ratio and can say something about where the object will be over the coming year with a decent degree of confidence. The object is doing a good job of staying away from the moon; it got within about 85000 km on 2019 April 26, which will raise its perigee from about 100000 km to about 150000 km, increasing the orbital period from about 18 days to about 22 days. Unfortunately, I don't see it hitting the earth or moon in the next few years. (But it is an artsat, in a somewhat chaotic orbit. We may yet get lucky here.)
My initial orbit for this object was based on the first four observations (the ones made as the object was still going toward the moon) plus the knowledge that it had been near a perigee of about 200 km a little after launch time. This resulted in something close to a wild guess, though probably good enough over the short term that somebody could have observed the object if they had wanted to. It was the best I could do at the time; the Chinese space agency is very close-mouthed about where things are going.
In hindsight, my "guess" gave a perilune that was off by about two hours and a prograde pass; the actual lunar flyby was retrograde. As a result, the object ended up in a lower orbit than I expected (period of about 16 days, not 37). The orbital period has since increased by a couple of days due to lunar and solar perturbations.
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T08 2018-103B CK181217:02295858 227.70806 +27.89912 x15.1 GV J95 2018-103B CK181217:02470636 228.77451 +27.73545 x14.3 GV J95 2018-103B CK181217:02501379 228.96439 +27.70528 x14.8 GV J95 2018-103B CK181217:02562616 229.33760 +27.64495 x14.0 GV J95 2018-103B KC2019 03 15.07503918 11 41.88 +09 12 14.7 16.3 GV C95 2018-103B KC2019 03 15.07735618 11 45.07 +09 11 24.7 15.5 GV C95 2018-103B KC2019 03 15.07968018 11 48.31 +09 10 34.8 16.6 GV C95 2018-103B KC2019 03 15.08206718 11 51.72 +09 09 40.6 16.2 GV C95 2018-103B KC2019 03 16.12443718 38 54.47 +02 59 53.6 15.7 GV C95 2018-103B KC2019 03 16.13186918 39 00.38 +02 57 36.7 16.1 GV C95 2018-103B KC2019 03 16.13558918 39 03.28 +02 56 28.1 16.2 GV C95 2018-103B KC2019 03 16.13930518 39 06.21 +02 55 19.9 15.6 GV C95 2018-103B KC2019 03 16.52792 18 47 26.67 +01 01 21.9 16.3 GV U69 2018-103B KC2019 03 16.53444 18 47 29.55 +00 59 26.6 17.0 GV U69 2018-103B KC2019 03 29.80372506 45 42.16 -01 00 26.3 13.4 GV C95 2018-103B KC2019 03 29.80581506 46 15.63 -00 51 50.5 13.3 GV C95 2018-103B KC2019 03 29.80790506 46 48.97 -00 43 17.3 13.8 GV C95 2018-103B KC2019 03 29.80999206 47 22.33 -00 34 44.1 15.6 GV C95 C069NX1 C2019 03 31.41877 15 13 24.91 +34 05 16.6 13.8 GV 703 C069NX1 C2019 03 31.42945 15 14 32.42 +33 56 18.4 14.0 GV 703 18103B C2019 04 20.08460817 08 31.54 +18 26 17.8 15.8 GV C95 18103B C2019 04 20.08485917 08 31.95 +18 26 09.6 15.7 GV C95 18103B C2019 04 20.08511117 08 32.44 +18 26 00.2 15.5 GV C95 18103B C2019 04 20.08536117 08 32.77 +18 25 50.8 15.6 GV C95 18103B C2019 04 20.08561217 08 33.28 +18 25 44.3 15.2 GV C95 18103B C2019 04 20.08586317 08 33.71 +18 25 36.0 14.9 GV C95 18103B C2019 04 20.08636617 08 34.53 +18 25 18.5 14.9 GV C95 18103B C2019 04 20.08661817 08 34.91 +18 25 10.5 14.8 GV C95 18103B C2019 04 20.08686817 08 35.50 +18 25 01.9 14.5 GV C95 18103B C2019 04 20.08711917 08 35.89 +18 24 53.7 14.8 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.88874012 05 03.30 +43 46 38.1 14.7 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.88899012 05 05.80 +43 46 39.5 15.0 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.88949412 05 10.59 +43 46 42.5 15.1 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.88974312 05 12.87 +43 46 43.9 15.3 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.88999112 05 15.35 +43 46 45.0 15.2 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89024312 05 17.82 +43 46 46.4 15.5 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89049512 05 20.26 +43 46 48.4 15.5 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89074612 05 22.77 +43 46 48.4 15.6 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89099812 05 25.12 +43 46 49.8 16.0 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89124912 05 27.31 +43 46 51.1 16.1 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89150012 05 29.80 +43 46 52.8 16.1 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89175112 05 32.63 +43 46 50.6 16.1 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89200212 05 34.88 +43 46 56.3 16.0 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89225412 05 37.23 +43 46 55.8 16.0 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89250512 05 39.66 +43 46 57.6 15.9 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89275612 05 42.09 +43 46 58.9 15.7 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89300612 05 44.39 +43 46 59.8 15.4 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89325812 05 46.83 +43 47 00.9 15.3 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89351012 05 49.22 +43 47 02.1 15.4 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89376112 05 51.59 +43 47 03.1 15.2 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89401012 05 54.00 +43 47 04.1 15.1 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89426012 05 56.55 +43 47 04.9 15.1 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89451212 05 58.85 +43 47 06.3 14.8 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89476412 06 01.33 +43 47 07.6 14.7 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89501712 06 03.70 +43 47 08.3 14.2 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89526712 06 06.10 +43 47 09.7 14.2 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89551912 06 08.51 +43 47 10.6 14.3 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89576912 06 10.87 +43 47 11.5 14.4 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89602012 06 13.29 +43 47 12.9 14.6 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89627212 06 15.79 +43 47 13.9 14.9 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89652312 06 18.13 +43 47 14.6 15.0 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89677412 06 20.60 +43 47 15.6 14.9 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89702612 06 22.98 +43 47 16.4 15.1 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89727812 06 25.35 +43 47 17.0 15.2 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89752812 06 27.85 +43 47 18.9 15.4 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89777812 06 30.24 +43 47 19.0 15.4 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89803112 06 32.57 +43 47 20.7 15.9 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89828112 06 35.08 +43 47 20.9 15.8 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89853212 06 37.43 +43 47 20.3 15.9 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89878412 06 39.82 +43 47 22.6 16.2 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89903512 06 42.34 +43 47 24.1 16.2 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89928612 06 44.72 +43 47 25.6 16.2 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89953712 06 47.05 +43 47 25.7 15.8 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.89978812 06 49.68 +43 47 26.2 15.9 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.90004012 06 51.94 +43 47 27.5 15.8 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.90029012 06 54.38 +43 47 27.4 15.5 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.90054112 06 56.77 +43 47 28.8 15.5 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.90079612 06 59.21 +43 47 30.0 15.1 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.90104712 07 01.63 +43 47 30.1 15.0 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.90129812 07 03.99 +43 47 31.1 15.0 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.90154812 07 06.38 +43 47 31.8 14.9 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.90180012 07 08.85 +43 47 33.1 14.8 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.90205012 07 11.20 +43 47 33.4 14.7 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.90230312 07 13.66 +43 47 34.0 14.4 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.90255312 07 16.09 +43 47 35.0 14.3 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.90280412 07 18.40 +43 47 35.4 14.3 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.90305512 07 20.89 +43 47 36.6 14.4 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.90330812 07 23.23 +43 47 36.8 14.5 GV C95 2018-103B C2019 05 05.90355812 07 25.71 +43 47 38.0 14.6 GV C95 C0M9Q62 C2019 05 06.23713 13 09 02.56 +43 40 10.8 14.1 GV G96 C0M9Q62 C2019 05 06.24245 13 09 40.68 +43 38 46.3 15.0 GV G96 C0M9Q62 C2019 05 06.24766 13 10 17.24 +43 37 21.0 15.5 GV G96 C0M9QD2 C2019 05 06.25593 13 11 15.76 +43 34 55.2 16.2 GV G96 C0M9QD2 C2019 05 06.26191 13 11 57.06 +43 33 04.6 15.1 GV G96 C0M9QD2 C2019 05 06.26750 13 12 36.54 +43 31 15.3 14.8 GV G96 C09M531 C2019 05 06.29234 13 15 29.71 +43 22 15.0 15.2 GV 703 C09M531 C2019 05 06.29774 13 16 07.16 +43 20 06.5 15.5 GV 703 C09M531 C2019 05 06.30712 13 17 12.84 +43 16 11.3 15.2 GV 703 C09M531 C2019 05 06.31251 13 17 50.50 +43 13 51.1 15.7 GV 703 Station data: (703) Catalina Sky Survey (N32.417006 W110.732640) US/Arizona. Observers R. A. Kowalski, T. A. Pruyne. Measurers B. M. Africano, E. J. Christensen, G. A. Farneth, D. C. Fuls, A. R. Gibbs, A. D. Grauer, H. Groeller, R. A. Kowalski, S. M. Larson, G. J. Leonard, T. A. Pruyne, R. L. Seaman, F. C. Shelly, D. Rankin. 0.68-m Schmidt + 10K CCD. (C95) SATINO Remote Observatory, Haute Provence (N43.932042 E5.712390) France. Observer J. Jahn. 0.60-m f/3.2 Newtonian reflector + CCD. (G96) Mt. Lemmon Survey (N32.442754 W110.788720) US/Arizona. Observers R. A. Kowalski, D. Rankin. Measurers B. M. Africano, E. J. Christensen, G. A. Farneth, D. C. Fuls, A. R. Gibbs, A. D. Grauer, H. Groeller, R. A. Kowalski, S. M. Larson, G. J. Leonard, T. A. Pruyne, D. Rankin, R. L. Seaman, F. C. Shelly. 1.5-m reflector + 10K CCD. (J95) Great Shefford (N51.474969 W1.447003) UK. Observer P. Birtwhistle. (T05) ATLAS-HKO, Haleakala (N20.707582 W156.257008) US/Hawaii. Observers L. Denneau, A. Heinze, H. Weiland, J. Tonry, H. Flewelling, A. Fitzsimmons, D. Young, B. Stalder. Measurers L. Denneau, A. Heinze, J. Tonry. 0.5-m f/2.0 Schmidt + CCD. (T08) ATLAS-MLO, Mauna Loa (N19.535772 W155.576400) US/Hawaii. Observers L. Denneau, A. Heinze, H. Weiland, J. Tonry, H. Flewelling, A. Fitzsimmons, D. Young, B. Stalder. Measurers L. Denneau, A. Heinze, J. Tonry. 0.5-m f/2.0 Schmidt + CCD. (U69) iTelescope SRO Observatory, Auberry (N37.070390 W119.413000) US/California. Observer M. Suzuki. 0.61-m f/6.5 reflector + CCD. Orbital elements: 2018-103B = NORAD 43846 = Chang'e 4 booster Perigee 2019 Mar 11.426952 +/- 5.88e-6 TT = 10:14:48 (JD 2458553.926952) Epoch 2019 Mar 15.0 TT; AMR 0.011538 +/- 0.000101 m2/kg Find_Orb M 70.83110096 +/- 0.00010 (J2000 equator) n 19.82371825 +/- 6.97e-6 Peri. 21.32144 +/- 0.00012 a291841.307 +/- 0.0684 Node 103.11173 +/- 0.00007 e 0.6631227 +/- 1.25e-6 Incl. 42.62116 +/- 0.00007 P 18.16d H 27.2 G 0.15 U 4.8 q 98314.6943 +/- 0.37 Q 485367.919 +/- 0.356 95 of 107 observations 2019 Mar. 15-May 6; mean residual 0".959
Orbital elements (near launch): 2018-103B = NORAD 43846 = Chang'e 4 booster Perigee 2018 Dec 7.777670 +/- 4.63e-5 TT = 18:39:50 (JD 2458460.277670) Epoch 2018 Dec 7.8 TT = JDT 2458460.3 Gray M 0.695783308 +/- 0.0014 (J2000 equator) n 31.159821357 +/- 0.000411 Peri. 146.358925 +/- 0.0014 a215877.2448 +/- 1.9 Node 354.247304 +/- 0.0016 e 0.96911543 +/- 6.3e-7 Incl. 28.475953 +/- 0.00052 P 11.55d H 25.5 G 0.15 U 7.5 q 6667.274145 +/- 0.0897 Q 425087.2155 +/- 3.85 From 12 observations 2018 Dec. 9-17; mean residual 0".341 Orbital elements (lunar flyby): 2018-103B = NORAD 43846 = Chang'e 4 booster Perilune 2018 Dec 12.411109 +/- 1.25e-5 TT = 9:51:59 (JD 2458464.911109) Epoch 2018 Dec 12.4 TT = JDT 2458464.9 Gray q 7996.894294 +/- 0.181 (J2000 ecliptic) H 25.5 G 0.15 Peri. 104.122563 +/- 0.00037 Node 47.037481 +/- 0.0007 e 2.01955854 +/- 1.8e-5 Incl. 153.987854 +/- 0.00041 From 12 observations 2018 Dec. 9-17; mean residual 0".341Residuals in arcseconds: 181209 T05(39.3+ 87.4+) 190420 C95 .841+ .434- 190505 C95 .223- .570+ 181209 T05(39.3+ 86.2+) 190420 C95 .115+ .213- 190505 C95 .331- .259- 181209 T05(38.7+ 86.8+) 190505 C95 1.02- .316- 190505 C95 1.40- .513+ 181209 T05(38.5+ 86.0+) 190505 C95 .008- .248- 190505 C95 .205- .192- 181215 T08(21.9- 5.08+) 190505 C95 .665- .102+ 190505 C95 .846- 1.69- 181215 T08(22.1- 5.01+) 190505 C95 1.92- .210+ 190505 C95 1.16- .280- 181215 T08(22.6- 5.26+) 190505 C95 .908- .035+ 190505 C95 .049+ .345+ 181215 T08(22.6- 5.00+) 190505 C95 .416- .150+ 190505 C95 .262- .982+ 181217 J95(93.5- 26.9+) 190505 C95 .248- .878+ 190505 C95 1.11- .230+ 181217 J95(92.0- 27.4+) 190505 C95 .785+ .378- 190505 C95 1.29+ .110- 181217 J95(91.3- 27.6+) 190505 C95 .016- .228- 190505 C95 .421- .358+ 181217 J95(89.2- 27.4+) 190505 C95 2.44- .160- 190505 C95 .029+ .556- 190315 C95 .693- .560+ 190505 C95 1.62- .319+ 190505 C95 .165- .038+ 190315 C95 1.09- .666+ 190505 C95 2.89+ 3.09- 190505 C95 .232- .431+ 190315 C95 .342- 1.04+ 190505 C95 1.11+ 1.41+ 190505 C95 .098- .252- 190315 C95 2.22+ 1.50- 190505 C95 .321+ .280- 190505 C95 .612- .024- 190316 C95 1.22+ .989+ 190505 C95 .502+ .346+ 190505 C95 .695- .081- 190316 C95 .379- .824+ 190505 C95 .685+ .483+ 190505 C95 .119- .467+ 190316 C95 .448- .693+ 190505 C95 .433- .236+ 190505 C95 .633- .033+ 190316 C95 1.02+ .907+ 190505 C95 .242- .192+ 190505 C95 .265- .099- 190316 U69 .186- .653- 190505 C95 .590- .259+ 190505 C95 .090+ .189+ 190316 U69 .673+ 1.04- 190505 C95 1.05- .142+ 190505 C95 .956- .114- 190329 C95 2.20- 2.17- 190505 C95 .864- .046+ 190505 C95 .052- .395+ 190329 C95 .370- .361- 190505 C95 .734+ .244- 190505 C95 .977- .091- 190329 C95 1.44- 1.61- 190505 C95 .581- .070+ 190505 C95 .074- .443+ 190329 C95 2.47- 2.58- 190505 C95 .055+ .295+ 190506 G96 2.23- .801+ 190331 703 .665+ .841- 190505 C95 .602- .072- 190506 G96 2.36+ .326- 190331 703 1.53+ 1.10- 190505 C95 .620- .285+ 190506 G96 .272- .335+ 190420 C95 1.12+ .275- 190505 C95 .737- .145+ 190506 G96 3.04+ .335- 190420 C95 .653+ .070- 190505 C95 1.18- .025+ 190506 G96 4.21- .569+ 190420 C95 1.30+ 1.03- 190505 C95 1.08- .412+ 190506 G96 .624- .420+ 190420 C95 .270- 2.06- 190505 C95 .221- .407+ 190506 703 1.33+ .312- 190420 C95 .695+ .145- 190505 C95 .984- .117+ 190506 703 1.19- .624+ 190420 C95 .524+ .033- 190505 C95 .337- .139+ 190506 703 .727+ .172- 190420 C95 .402- .670- 190505 C95 .767- .032- 190506 703 .386+ .303- 190420 C95 1.30- .219- 190505 C95 1.30- .391- Ephemerides (geocentric): Date (UTC) RA Dec delta elong mag " sig PA ---- -- -- ------------- ----------- ------ ----- --- ---- --- 2019 05 07 14 50 59.489 +37 41 30.69 273446 125.7 15.5 .407 106 2019 05 08 16 00 37.997 +29 27 46.42 327625 131.2 15.7 .514 114 2019 05 09 16 44 04.046 +22 08 23.80 373764 133.4 16.0 .526 116 2019 05 10 17 15 20.555 +15 47 58.70 411921 133.9 16.2 .507 117 2019 05 11 17 40 12.919 +10 12 04.09 442572 133.5 16.3 .475 116 2019 05 12 18 01 27.491 +05 07 45.85 466184 132.6 16.5 .439 115 2019 05 13 18 20 37.287 +00 25 19.46 483114 131.3 16.6 .402 113 2019 05 14 18 38 42.244 -04 02 37.93 493601 129.7 16.7 .366 111 2019 05 15 18 56 27.273 -08 21 58.77 497768 127.8 16.8 .330 108 2019 05 16 19 14 32.159 -12 37 43.47 495629 125.6 16.8 .295 105 2019 05 17 19 33 38.875 -16 54 27.83 487099 123.1 16.8 .263 101 2019 05 18 19 54 39.514 -21 16 41.15 471994 120.0 16.9 .233 97 2019 05 19 20 18 48.273 -25 48 50.57 450029 116.4 16.9 .208 93 2019 05 20 20 48 03.722 -30 34 49.01 420822 111.8 16.9 .190 90 2019 05 21 21 25 55.699 -35 35 19.72 383916 106.1 16.9 .190 91 2019 05 22 22 19 10.052 -40 37 40.99 338868 98.3 16.8 .237 95 2019 05 23 23 41 10.470 -44 35 05.78 285616 87.3 16.9 .416 94 2019 05 24 01 50 59.221 -42 58 31.80 225985 70.3 17.3 .965 77 2019 05 25 04 40 24.924 -23 38 40.34 170352 45.3 18?? 2.54 53 2019 05 26 07 43 47.849 +18 55 52.39 153455 50.2 18?? 4.52 50 2019 05 27 11 27 59.961 +44 14 34.41 194243 87.8 16.1 3.75 81 2019 05 28 14 16 26.061 +41 29 20.74 254468 111.2 15.8 2.67 109 2019 05 29 15 41 59.518 +33 01 04.13 312154 124.7 15.8 2.04 120 2019 05 30 16 31 19.020 +25 11 37.45 362464 133.1 15.9 1.66 125 2019 05 31 17 04 51.164 +18 29 54.01 404879 138.8 16.0 1.42 127 2019 06 01 17 30 24.554 +12 41 08.23 439783 142.7 16.1 1.25 128 2019 06 02 17 51 28.929 +07 30 10.05 467693 145.3 16.1 1.12 128 2019 06 03 18 09 53.782 +02 45 35.90 489067 147.0 16.2 1.03 128 2019 06 04 18 26 44.569 -01 40 54.41 504263 148.0 16.2 .954 127 2019 06 05 18 42 45.943 -05 55 38.34 513538 148.2 16.3 .900 127 2019 06 06 18 58 32.989 -10 03 35.84 517046 147.7 16.3 .861 126 2019 06 07 19 14 37.851 -14 09 01.05 514841 146.6 16.3 .838 126 2019 06 08 19 31 34.922 -18 15 44.68 506878 144.9 16.3 .832 125 2019 06 09 19 50 06.648 -22 27 29.49 493011 142.4 16.3 .849 125 2019 06 10 20 11 12.220 -26 47 57.00 472988 139.1 16.3 .897 124 2019 06 11 20 36 23.271 -31 20 32.87 446447 134.8 16.3 0.99 123 2019 06 12 21 08 15.635 -36 07 05.57 412917 129.2 16.3 1.17 120 2019 06 13 21 51 38.107 -41 02 30.92 371852 121.9 16.3 1.49 115 2019 06 14 22 55 55.931 -45 34 54.00 322772 111.7 16.3 2.09 106 2019 06 15 00 37 38.003 -47 30 32.29 265874 96.6 16.4 3.37 88