"Pseudo-MPEC" for S512009 = ZTF0D86

Created 2020 Apr 4 13:23:36 UT using Find_Orb

Click here for an explanation of pseudo-MPECs

TLEs are available for this object, and for some of the other objects on these pages.

This object was first found on 2020 February 7 as ZTF0D86, and removed five days later as "was not confirmed". However, it seemed reasonably likely (though not certain) to be space junk to me, and I put it on my list as something we might see again.

Almost two months later, on 2020 April 4, Cristóvão Jacques found an artsat with suspiciously similar orbital elements, which he designated as S512009. Fortunately, he tracked it for about 2.5 hours, long enough to reduce the uncertainty to the point where getting an orbit linking it to ZTF0D86 was unusually simple. (With less data, finding a linkage between two arcs months apart can be quite a bit of work.)

Armed with a much better orbit, I then did a search for possible instances of this object from January 2019 to the present, without success. However, now that we have decent elements for it, we should be able to recover it in the future.

 
 Astrometry: 
     ZTF0D86* C2020 02 07.45927112 10 06.30 -01 20 03.2    ~281q 13.38gUNEOCPI41
     ZTF0D86  C2020 02 07.45961812 10 12.84 -01 19 29.6    ~281q 13.38gUNEOCPI41
     ZTF0D86  C2020 02 07.50731512 25 36.03 -00 02 19.1    ~281q 12.74RUNEOCPI41
     ZTF0D86  C2020 02 07.50766212 25 42.79 -00 01 46.3    ~281q 12.74RUNEOCPI41
     S512009*tC2020 04 04.14758 13 53 33.72 +10 53 46.3    ~44DB 13.2 RqNEOCPY00
     S512009 tC2020 04 04.14865 13 54 00.30 +10 55 53.9    ~44DB 13.3 RqNEOCPY00
     S512009 tC2020 04 04.22096 14 27 49.47 +13 28 22.2    ~44DB 12.8 RqNEOCPY00
     S512009 tC2020 04 04.22172 14 28 14.03 +13 30 05.2    ~44DB 12.1 RqNEOCPY00
     S512009 tC2020 04 04.22206 14 28 24.93 +13 30 51.1    ~44DB 12.6 RqNEOCPY00
     S512009 tC2020 04 04.22235 14 28 34.29 +13 31 30.2    ~44DB 13.4 RqNEOCPY00
     S512009 tC2020 04 04.22290 14 28 52.00 +13 32 44.4    ~44DB 13.9 RqNEOCPY00
     S512009 tC2020 04 04.22321 14 29 02.23 +13 33 27.3    ~44DB 13.2 RqNEOCPY00
     S512009 tC2020 04 04.22408 14 29 30.46 +13 35 25.3    ~44DB 12.8 RqNEOCPY00
     S512009  C2020 04 04.22435 14 29 39.41 +13 36 02.6    ~44DB 12.1 RqNEOCPY00
     S512009  C2020 04 04.22457 14 29 46.44 +13 36 31.4    ~44DB 11.6 RqNEOCPY00
     S512009  C2020 04 04.22478 14 29 53.32 +13 37 00.5    ~44DB 12.4 RqNEOCPY00
     S512009  C2020 04 04.22501 14 30 00.98 +13 37 32.2    ~44DB 11.5 RqNEOCPY00
     S512009 tC2020 04 04.24553 14 41 45.71 +14 25 12.4    ~44DB 12.2 RqNEOCPY00
     S512009 tC2020 04 04.24604 14 42 03.94 +14 26 24.2    ~44DB 12.3 RqNEOCPY00
     S512009 tC2020 04 04.24636 14 42 15.61 +14 27 10.3    ~44DB 12.4 RqNEOCPY00
     S512009 tC2020 04 04.24690 14 42 35.25 +14 28 27.6    ~44DB 11.7 RqNEOCPY00
     S512009 tC2020 04 04.24717 14 42 45.17 +14 29 06.8    ~44DB 13.8 RqNEOCPY00
     S512009 tC2020 04 04.24753 14 42 57.94 +14 29 56.9    ~44DB 13.6 RqNEOCPY00
     S512009 tC2020 04 04.24787 14 43 10.49 +14 30 46.5    ~44DB 13.1 RqNEOCPY00
     S512009 tC2020 04 04.24816 14 43 21.00 +14 31 28.2    ~44DB 12.7 RqNEOCPY00
     S512009 tC2020 04 04.24981 14 44 21.92 +14 35 26.1    ~44DB 12.2 RqNEOCPY00

Station data:
(I41) Palomar Mountain--ZTF  (N33.357340 W116.859780)  US/California. 1.2-m
   f/2.44 Oschin Schmidt + CCD.
(Y00) SONEAR Observatory, Oliveira  (S20.715082 W44.784960)  Brazil.
   Observers C. Jacques, E. Pimentel, J. Barros. Measurer C. Jacques. 0.28-m
   f/2.2 astrograph + CCD.

Orbital elements:  S512009 = ZTF0D86
   Perigee 2020 Apr 4.484165 +/- 3.02e-5 TT = 11:37:11 (JD 2458943.984165)
Epoch 2020 Apr  4.0 TT = JDT 2458943.5                        Find_Orb
M 196.4224885691 +/- 0.010          (J2000 equator)
n 337.8548440163 +/- 5.31e-5        Peri.  192.2505193 +/- 0.0034
a 44067.330172 +/- 0.00462          Node   174.3257549 +/- 0.00010
e   0.607894150 +/- 2.52e-5         Incl.   14.1821059 +/- 0.00031
P1534.36m/1.066d           H 29.0   G  0.15   U  6.2
q 17279.057926 +/- 1.11    Q 70855.602419 +/- 1.11
From 26 observations 2020 Feb. 7-Apr. 4; mean residual 1".259
Residuals in arcseconds: 
200207 I41 1.05+ .480+    200404 Y00 .880- .332-    200404 Y00 1.41- .509-
200207 I41 1.13- .267-    200404 Y00 2.10- .674-    200404 Y00 .362- .155-
200207 I41 .167+ .049-    200404 Y00 .543+ .173+    200404 Y00 5.7m+ .132-
200207 I41 .273- .308-    200404 Y00 .124- 6.8m+    200404 Y00 1.34+ .392+
200404 Y00 3.41+ 1.18+    200404 Y00 2.09+ .590+    200404 Y00 3.82- 1.12-
200404 Y00 2.61+ 1.12+    200404 Y00 .042- .543-    200404 Y00 1.88- .270-
200404 Y00 1.53- .327-    200404 Y00 .293+ .028-    200404 Y00 3.37- .260-
200404 Y00 .117+ .053-    200404 Y00 2.37+ .349+    200404 Y00 .172+ .151+
200404 Y00 .813- .162-    200404 Y00 1.70+ .525+
Residuals in seconds along-track,  arcseconds across-track:  
200207 I41 +.32s .116-    200404 Y00 -.17s .076+    200404 Y00 -.24s .121+
200207 I41 -.33s .114-    200404 Y00 -.39s .067+    200404 Y00 -62ms .055+
200207 I41 +40ms .098+    200404 Y00 +.10s .017-    200404 Y00 -05ms .129+
200207 I41 -.10s .208+    200404 Y00 -21ms .041-    200404 Y00 +.22s .027-
200404 Y00 +.81s .064-    200404 Y00 +.38s 9.1m+    200404 Y00 -.63s .080+
200404 Y00 +.63s .255-    200404 Y00 -33ms .510+    200404 Y00 -.30s .229-
200404 Y00 -.28s .109-    200404 Y00 +48ms .108+    200404 Y00 -.52s .629-
200404 Y00 +17ms .083+    200404 Y00 +.41s .316+    200404 Y00 +32ms .101-
200404 Y00 -.15s .069-    200404 Y00 +.28s .060-

Ephemerides (geocentric):
Date (UTC) HH   RA              Dec         delta   r     elong  mag  LuElo " sig PA
---- --------  --------------  -----------  -----  ------ -----  ---  ----- --------
2020 04 04 00  12 44 52.636   +04 12 12.32   70416 1.0006 169.9 13.0   51.7 .144  24
2020 04 04 01  13 02 12.328   +05 13 51.26   69354 1.0006 168.8 13.0   54.8 .526  55
2020 04 04 02  13 20 18.022   +06 16 07.04   67649 1.0006 166.3 13.1   58.1 .707  53
2020 04 04 03  13 39 36.031   +07 19 41.90   65277 1.0006 162.6 13.1   61.8 .637  42
2020 04 04 04  14 00 41.204   +08 25 18.08   62207 1.0006 158.1 13.2   65.9 .469 168
2020 04 04 05  14 24 23.233   +09 33 34.59   58398 1.0005 152.7 13.2   70.6 1.24 107
2020 04 04 06  14 51 58.430   +10 44 54.74   53794 1.0005 146.3 13.2   76.2 3.19  93
2020 04 04 07  15 25 33.884   +11 58 44.28   48325 1.0004 138.4 13.2   83.2 6.82  89
2020 04 04 08  16 09 02.446   +13 11 07.47   41917 1.0004 128.1 13.2   92.4 13.7  89
2020 04 04 09  17 10 23.570   +14 05 34.43   34532 1.0003 113.5 13.2  105.5 28.2  90
2020 04 04 10  18 48 18.919   +13 32 11.03   26379 1.0002  90.2 13.4  126.2 63.1  95
2020 04 04 11  21 45 51.954   +06 44 13.84   19025 1.0002  46.9 15??  155.9  149 103
2020 04 04 12  02 15 43.355   -09 09 06.91   18084 1.0002  25.1 18??  115.3  188 101
2020 04 04 13  05 39 55.188   -14 10 44.15   24740 1.0002  73.4 14.1   69.9  106  89
2020 04 04 14  07 29 10.469   -12 34 36.43   32949 1.0003  99.5 13.5   46.7 58.8  82
2020 04 04 15  08 34 33.631   -10 14 32.66   40521 1.0004 115.4 13.5   34.0 36.9  79
2020 04 04 16  09 19 38.253   -08 07 13.78   47125 1.0005 126.4 13.5   26.6 25.0  76
2020 04 04 17  09 53 55.393   -06 16 39.13   52776 1.0006 134.8 13.5   22.7 17.7  75
2020 04 04 18  10 21 49.466   -04 39 45.11   57548 1.0006 141.7 13.5   21.2 12.8  74
2020 04 04 19  10 45 39.975   -03 13 14.76   61512 1.0007 147.4 13.5   21.3 9.35  73
2020 04 04 20  11 06 48.671   -01 54 31.84   64726 1.0007 152.4 13.4   22.5 6.77  73
2020 04 04 21  11 26 07.824   -00 41 37.73   67235 1.0008 156.9 13.4   24.4 4.78  73
2020 04 04 22  11 44 13.574   +00 26 58.59   69073 1.0008 160.9 13.3   26.6 3.22  72
2020 04 04 23  12 01 32.893   +01 32 29.00   70263 1.0008 164.3 13.2   29.1 1.98  73
2020 04 05 00  12 18 27.603   +02 35 52.48   70820 1.0009 167.1 13.2   31.7 1.01  75
2020 04 05 01  12 35 16.969   +03 37 59.67   70751 1.0009 168.9 13.1   34.6 .275  90
2020 04 05 02  12 52 19.657   +04 39 36.10   70054 1.0009 169.2 13.1   37.7 .296  47
2020 04 05 03  13 09 55.545   +05 41 24.70   68721 1.0009 167.8 13.1   40.9 .604  54
2020 04 05 04  13 28 27.805   +06 44 07.62   66736 1.0009 165.0 13.1   44.6 .681  50
2020 04 05 05  13 48 25.786   +07 48 27.11   64073 1.0009 161.1 13.1   48.6 .520  26
2020 04 05 06  14 10 29.608   +08 55 04.64   60696 1.0008 156.4 13.2   53.1 .656 130
2020 04 05 07  14 35 38.287   +10 04 34.87   56557 1.0008 150.7 13.2   58.4 1.94  98
2020 04 05 08  15 05 25.506   +11 17 04.70   51594 1.0008 143.8 13.2   64.9 4.50  91
2020 04 05 09  15 42 33.364   +12 31 03.17   45736 1.0007 135.1 13.2   73.1 9.24  88
2020 04 05 10  16 32 13.073   +13 39 11.12   38911 1.0007 123.3 13.1   84.2 18.6  89
2020 04 05 11  17 45 41.962   +14 11 18.69   31139 1.0006 105.9 13.2  100.9 39.2  92
2020 04 05 12  19 50 22.002   +11 56 25.41   22953 1.0005  76.1 13.8  129.5 91.8  98
2020 04 05 13  23 35 33.634   +00 06 12.47   17425 1.0004  21.6 19??  163.4  190 104
2020 04 05 14  03 57 40.552   -12 55 20.23   20378 1.0005  48.4 15??  106.0  153  96
2020 04 05 15  06 34 34.573   -13 45 51.34   28233 1.0006  85.6 13.8   69.6 81.2  86
2020 04 05 16  08 00 43.367   -11 34 28.32   36272 1.0007 106.3 13.5   49.8 47.7  81
2020 04 05 17  08 55 44.157   -09 17 41.13   43444 1.0007 119.7 13.5   37.3 31.0  78
2020 04 05 18  09 35 27.637   -07 17 29.89   49637 1.0008 129.4 13.5   28.6 21.5  76
2020 04 05 19  10 06 38.650   -05 33 01.52   54907 1.0009 137.0 13.5   22.1 15.4  75
2020 04 05 20  10 32 35.901   -04 00 48.77   59330 1.0010 143.3 13.5   17.2 11.2  74
2020 04 05 21  10 55 09.286   -02 37 49.89   62970 1.0010 148.7 13.5   13.7 8.19  73
2020 04 05 22  11 15 25.733   -01 21 45.23   65881 1.0011 153.4 13.4   11.7 5.89  73
2020 04 05 23  11 34 09.501   -00 10 48.78   68103 1.0011 157.6 13.4   11.4 4.10  72
2020 04 06 00  11 51 52.193   +00 56 21.63   69664 1.0011 161.4 13.3   12.4 2.68  73
2020 04 06 01  12 08 58.195   +02 00 51.85   70585 1.0012 164.6 13.2   14.5 1.56  73
2020 04 06 02  12 25 47.964   +03 03 36.92   70877 1.0012 167.1 13.2   17.1 .694  77
2020 04 06 03  12 42 40.272   +04 05 24.94   70543 1.0012 168.5 13.1   20.2 .107 141
2020 04 06 04  12 59 54.056   +05 07 00.06   69579 1.0012 168.4 13.1   23.5 .426  52
2020 04 06 05  13 17 50.283   +06 09 04.63   67973 1.0012 166.7 13.1   27.1 .640  53
2020 04 06 06  13 36 54.292   +07 12 20.70   65705 1.0012 163.6 13.1   31.2 .611  42
2020 04 06 07  13 57 39.249   +08 17 30.34   62746 1.0012 159.6 13.1   35.6 .450 174
2020 04 06 08  14 20 51.921   +09 25 13.13   59053 1.0011 154.6 13.2   40.8 1.10 109
2020 04 06 09  14 47 43.297   +10 35 55.80   54575 1.0011 148.5 13.2   46.8 2.88  94
2020 04 06 10  15 20 10.036   +11 49 17.32   49244 1.0011 141.0 13.2   54.2 6.19  89
2020 04 06 11  16 01 42.495   +13 02 10.38   42985 1.0010 131.3 13.1   63.8 12.4  88
2020 04 06 12  16 59 25.499   +14 01 16.27   35745 1.0009 117.6 13.1   77.2 25.2  90
2020 04 06 13  18 29 35.471   +13 50 51.69   27663 1.0009  96.3 13.3   98.5 55.5  94
2020 04 06 14  21 11 01.344   +08 33 53.03   19928 1.0008  57.3 14??  137.6  133 102
2020 04 06 15  01 34 19.055   -07 03 43.87   17567 1.0008  15.8 22??  154.7  197 102
2020 04 06 16  05 16 49.906   -14 08 42.99   23490 1.0008  66.3 14.4  100.6  117  91
2020 04 06 17  07 16 48.453   -12 55 06.58   31700 1.0009  94.8 13.6   72.0 64.0  83
2020 04 06 18  08 26 49.277   -10 34 17.14   39416 1.0010 111.7 13.5   55.3 39.5  79
2020 04 06 19  09 14 10.363   -08 23 48.13   46175 1.0011 123.2 13.5   43.9 26.5  77
2020 04 06 20  09 49 43.668   -06 30 29.00   51970 1.0012 131.9 13.5   35.4 18.7  75
2020 04 06 21  10 18 24.212   -04 51 29.98   56874 1.0012 138.9 13.5   28.6 13.5  74
2020 04 06 22  10 42 44.749   -03 23 26.82   60960 1.0013 144.7 13.5   22.9 9.87  73
2020 04 06 23  11 04 13.461   -02 03 35.27   64287 1.0013 149.8 13.5   17.8 7.17  73
2020 04 07 00  11 23 46.014   -00 49 50.75   66904 1.0014 154.3 13.5   13.3 5.10  73
2020 04 07 01  11 42 00.438   +00 19 21.85   68844 1.0014 158.3 13.4    9.1 3.48  72
2020 04 07 02  11 59 24.779   +01 25 17.15   70134 1.0014 161.8 13.3    5.1 2.20  73
2020 04 07 03  12 16 21.436   +02 28 55.95   70788 1.0015 164.8 13.2    1.3 1.19  74
2020 04 07 04  12 33 09.906   +03 31 09.94   70816 1.0015 167.0 13.2    2.7 .424  83
2020 04 07 05  12 50 08.809   +04 32 45.23   70217 1.0015 168.0 13.1    6.5 .188  32
2020 04 07 06  13 07 37.686   +05 34 24.92   68985 1.0015 167.5 13.1   10.5 .515  52
2020 04 07 07  13 25 59.006   +06 36 50.97   67103 1.0015 165.5 13.1   14.7 .628  49
2020 04 07 08  13 45 40.877   +07 40 45.33   64548 1.0015 162.2 13.1   19.2 .507  27
2020 04 07 09  14 07 21.281   +08 46 49.33   61286 1.0015 158.0 13.1   24.2 .595 134
2020 04 07 10  14 31 55.441   +09 55 38.78   57271 1.0014 152.6 13.2   29.9 1.75 100
2020 04 07 11  15 00 49.934   +11 07 26.48   52443 1.0014 146.1 13.2   36.6 4.09  91
2020 04 07 12  15 36 32.378   +12 21 04.06   46731 1.0013 137.8 13.1   44.9 8.39  89
2020 04 07 13  16 23 41.139   +13 30 38.03   40062 1.0013 126.8 13.1   55.9 16.7  89
2020 04 07 14  17 32 09.521   +14 11 58.16   32426 1.0012 110.7 13.1   72.0 34.8  91
2020 04 07 15  19 25 42.285   +12 41 10.28   24208 1.0011  83.8 13.5   99.1 80.1  97
2020 04 07 16  22 53 02.013   +02 45 30.67   17832 1.0011  33.5 17??  150.5  178 104
2020 04 07 17  03 22 55.210   -11 54 46.34   19380 1.0011  38.8 16??  140.8  168  98
2020 04 07 18  06 16 40.322   -13 59 24.98   26918 1.0012  79.7 13.9   99.2 89.6  87
2020 04 07 19  07 50 27.688   -11 55 23.48   35050 1.0012 102.1 13.6   76.9 51.6  81
2020 04 07 20  08 48 56.572   -09 36 02.60   42377 1.0013 116.2 13.5   63.0 33.1  78
2020 04 07 21  09 30 28.900   -07 32 45.29   48723 1.0014 126.3 13.6   53.1 22.8  76
2020 04 07 22  10 02 43.556   -05 45 48.64   54135 1.0015 134.1 13.6   45.6 16.3  75
2020 04 07 23  10 29 20.942   -04 11 45.18   58686 1.0015 140.5 13.6   39.4 11.9  74
2020 04 08 00  10 52 20.870   -02 47 24.67   62446 1.0016 146.0 13.5   34.2 8.66  73
2020 04 08 01  11 12 55.282   -01 30 20.22   65469 1.0017 150.8 13.5   29.7 6.26  73
2020 04 08 02  11 31 51.164   -00 18 40.60   67797 1.0017 155.1 13.5   25.6 4.40  73
2020 04 08 03  11 49 41.667   +00 48 59.86   69461 1.0017 158.8 13.4   22.0 2.93  73