"Pseudo-MPEC" for Herschel = HPO2
Created Mon Oct 21 14:57:14 2013 using Find_Orb
Click here for an earlier version of this page, based on data while Herschel was still at the Earth-Sun L2 point. The current arc isn't long enough to determine an area/mass ratio, so I took the value AMR=0.014 m^2/kg from a previous solution. This leads to the next closest approach being on 2027 Oct 15 at 0.0557 AU.
With the additional astrometry, the formal positional uncertainty for the 2027 return is about a half degree. This uncertainty is itself somewhat uncertain, because effects such as Yarkovsky and YORP aren't modelled. I could easily imagine these resulting in a gentle, but consistent, acceleration or deceleration along the orbit. Still, even with all this, I'd expect that recovery in 2027 should be straightforward, should someone care to look.
Astrometry:
Herschel $C2013 06 26.44304 16 43 44.07 -17 29 31.4 18.8 R D0484F65
Herschel $C2013 06 26.44986 16 43 43.72 -17 29 35.7 18.6 R D0484F65
Herschel $C2013 06 27.46237 16 46 21.52 -17 48 38.7 19.2 R D0484F65
Herschel $C2013 06 27.47038 16 46 21.26 -17 48 42.7 18.8 R D0484F65
Herschel {C2013 06 28.16809316 48 49.41 -18 03 24.1 20.8 R D0484695
Herschel {C2013 06 28.22687716 48 46.82 -18 04 44.8 x20.4 R D0484695
Herschel 2C2013 07 01.44281 16 57 31.90 -18 54 47.4 20.1 R D0485E10
Herschel 2C2013 07 01.45164 16 57 31.63 -18 55 00.7 19.4 R D0485E10
Herschel 5C2013 09 10.43169 20 26 17.39 -22 22 03.2 D0487E10
Herschel 5C2013 09 10.44015 20 26 18.18 -22 21 58.7 22.8 T D0487E10
Herschel KC2013 09 11.93271720 30 14.78 -22 06 17.3 22.9 V K92
Herschel KC2013 09 11.94510720 30 16.17 -22 06 06.3 22.4 V K92
Herschel KC2013 09 11.95750020 30 17.67 -22 05 55.0 23.2 V K92
Herschel 5C2013 09 24.43755 21 04 07.34 -19 40 29.8 D0489E10
Herschel KC2013 09 24.45710 21 04 09.40 -19 40 14.9 24.2 R E10
Herschel 5C2013 09 24.47666 21 04 11.53 -19 39 59.6 24.2 R D0489E10
Station data:
(695) Kitt Peak (N31.95849 W111.59467) US/Arizona. Observer T. Vorobjov.
Measurers T. Vorobjov, N. Howes, E. Guido. 1.3-m f/13 Cassegrain + CCD.
(E10) Siding Spring-Faulkes Telescope South (S31.27324 E149.07028) Australia/NSW.
Observer R. Miles. 2.0-m f/10.0 Ritchey-Chretien + CCD.
(F65) Haleakala-Faulkes Telescope North (N20.7072 W156.2576) US/Hawaii.
Observers N. Howes, E. Guido. 2.0-m f/10.0 Ritchey-Chretien + CCD.
(K92) Sutherland-LCOGT B (S32.38063 E20.81004) South Africa. Observer T.
Lister. 1.0-m f/8 Ritchey-Chretien + CCD.
Orbital elements: Herschel = HPO2
Perihelion 2013 May 22.178368 +/- 0.0212 TT; Constraint: A=0.014
Epoch 2013 Jul 1.0 TT; AMR 0.014 +/- 0.000005 m2/kg Find_Orb
M 36.88972 +/- 0.020
n 0.92637411 +/- 1.24e-5 Peri. 123.94395 +/- 0.020
a 1.04218569 +/- 9.28e-6 Node 117.03399 +/- 0.0009
e 0.0130823 +/- 4.44e-6 Incl. 0.19434 +/- 0.000033
P 1.06/388.60d H 27.8 G 0.15 U 5.2
q 1.02855143 +/- 4.63e-6 Q 1.05581995 +/- 1.4e-5
15 of 16 observations 2013 June 26-Sept. 24; mean residual 0".472.
Residuals in arcseconds:
130626 F65 .359+ .402+ 130701 E10 .185- .766- 130911 K92 .021+ .461+
130626 F65 .049+ .618+ 130701 E10 .696- .950- 130924 E10 .193- .463+
130627 F65 .001- .092- 130910 E10 .362+ .587- 130924 E10 .532- .681+
130627 F65 .267- .201+ 130910 E10 .121- .669- 130924 E10 .069+ .693+
130628 695 .730+ .618+ 130911 K92 .416+ .309-
130628 695(1.67- 1.06+) 130911 K92 .236- .044+
Ephemerides:
Date (UT) RA Dec delta r elong mag
---- -- -- ------------ ------------ ------ ------ ----- ---
2013 08 01 18 28 58.663 -24 59 31.54 .02446 1.0358 147.8 21.2
2013 08 02 18 32 00.403 -25 03 41.33 .02486 1.0359 147.5 21.2
2013 08 03 18 35 01.619 -25 07 20.84 .02528 1.0361 147.2 21.3
2013 08 04 18 38 02.430 -25 10 30.14 .02570 1.0362 146.9 21.3
2013 08 05 18 41 02.953 -25 13 09.32 .02614 1.0364 146.7 21.4
2013 08 06 18 44 03.298 -25 15 18.54 .02659 1.0366 146.4 21.4
2013 08 07 18 47 03.568 -25 16 58.01 .02705 1.0367 146.1 21.5
2013 08 08 18 50 03.850 -25 18 08.00 .02753 1.0369 145.8 21.5
2013 08 09 18 53 04.217 -25 18 48.86 .02801 1.0371 145.5 21.6
2013 08 10 18 56 04.721 -25 19 01.02 .02851 1.0372 145.2 21.6
2013 08 11 18 59 05.389 -25 18 44.99 .02902 1.0374 144.9 21.6
2013 08 12 19 02 06.220 -25 18 01.37 .02954 1.0376 144.7 21.7
2013 08 13 19 05 07.183 -25 16 50.85 .03007 1.0378 144.4 21.7
2013 08 14 19 08 08.216 -25 15 14.22 .03062 1.0380 144.1 21.8
2013 08 15 19 11 09.224 -25 13 12.32 .03117 1.0381 143.8 21.8
2013 08 16 19 14 10.078 -25 10 46.08 .03174 1.0383 143.5 21.9
2013 08 17 19 17 10.625 -25 07 56.49 .03231 1.0385 143.3 21.9
2013 08 18 19 20 10.687 -25 04 44.54 .03290 1.0387 143.0 22.0
2013 08 19 19 23 10.078 -25 01 11.18 .03349 1.0389 142.7 22.0
2013 08 20 19 26 08.615 -24 57 17.34 .03410 1.0391 142.4 22.1
2013 08 21 19 29 06.136 -24 53 03.80 .03472 1.0393 142.1 22.1
2013 08 22 19 32 02.517 -24 48 31.22 .03535 1.0394 141.8 22.2
2013 08 23 19 34 57.675 -24 43 40.09 .03599 1.0396 141.5 22.2
2013 08 24 19 37 51.575 -24 38 30.80 .03664 1.0398 141.2 22.2
2013 08 25 19 40 44.224 -24 33 03.59 .03731 1.0400 140.9 22.3
2013 08 26 19 43 35.667 -24 27 18.65 .03798 1.0402 140.6 22.3
2013 08 27 19 46 25.969 -24 21 16.12 .03867 1.0404 140.3 22.4
2013 08 28 19 49 15.216 -24 14 56.08 .03938 1.0406 140.0 22.4
2013 08 29 19 52 03.503 -24 08 18.64 .04010 1.0408 139.7 22.5
2013 08 30 19 54 50.932 -24 01 23.88 .04083 1.0410 139.4 22.5
2013 08 31 19 57 37.606 -23 54 11.87 .04158 1.0412 139.0 22.6
2013 09 01 20 00 23.629 -23 46 42.73 .04234 1.0415 138.7 22.6
2013 09 02 20 03 09.106 -23 38 56.53 .04312 1.0417 138.4 22.7
2013 09 03 20 05 54.139 -23 30 53.39 .04391 1.0419 138.1 22.7
2013 09 04 20 08 38.827 -23 22 33.45 .04472 1.0421 137.8 22.8
2013 09 05 20 11 23.262 -23 13 56.84 .04554 1.0423 137.4 22.8
2013 09 06 20 14 07.530 -23 05 03.77 .04638 1.0425 137.1 22.9
2013 09 07 20 16 51.703 -22 55 54.46 .04723 1.0427 136.8 22.9
2013 09 08 20 19 35.838 -22 46 29.23 .04810 1.0429 136.5 23.0
2013 09 09 20 22 19.972 -22 36 48.42 .04898 1.0432 136.2 23.0
2013 09 10 20 25 04.124 -22 26 52.47 .04987 1.0434 135.8 23.1
2013 09 11 20 27 48.289 -22 16 41.89 .05078 1.0436 135.5 23.1
2013 09 12 20 30 32.439 -22 06 17.22 .05171 1.0438 135.2 23.2
2013 09 13 20 33 16.526 -21 55 39.08 .05264 1.0440 134.9 23.2
2013 09 14 20 36 00.485 -21 44 48.12 .05359 1.0443 134.6 23.2
2013 09 15 20 38 44.237 -21 33 44.97 .05456 1.0445 134.3 23.3
2013 09 16 20 41 27.695 -21 22 30.28 .05553 1.0447 134.0 23.3
2013 09 17 20 44 10.771 -21 11 04.64 .05652 1.0449 133.7 23.4
2013 09 18 20 46 53.383 -20 59 28.57 .05752 1.0452 133.3 23.4
2013 09 19 20 49 35.466 -20 47 42.49 .05854 1.0454 133.0 23.5
2013 09 20 20 52 16.970 -20 35 46.74 .05957 1.0456 132.7 23.5
2013 09 21 20 54 57.870 -20 23 41.52 .06061 1.0458 132.4 23.6
2013 09 22 20 57 38.161 -20 11 26.99 .06167 1.0461 132.1 23.6
2013 09 23 21 00 17.858 -19 59 03.18 .06274 1.0463 131.8 23.7
2013 09 24 21 02 56.992 -19 46 30.11 .06383 1.0465 131.4 23.7
2013 09 25 21 05 35.605 -19 33 47.75 .06493 1.0468 131.1 23.7
2013 09 26 21 08 13.749 -19 20 56.03 .06605 1.0470 130.8 23.8
2013 09 27 21 10 51.478 -19 07 54.90 .06718 1.0472 130.5 23.8
2013 09 28 21 13 28.851 -18 54 44.29 .06833 1.0475 130.2 23.9
2013 09 29 21 16 05.929 -18 41 24.14 .06950 1.0477 129.8 23.9
2013 09 30 21 18 42.773 -18 27 54.37 .07068 1.0479 129.5 24.0
2013 10 01 21 21 19.445 -18 14 14.92 .07188 1.0482 129.2 24.0
2027 09 10 02 54 56.541 +14 04 47.77 .06609 1.0429 121.2 24.0
2027 09 11 02 55 56.483 +14 06 24.52 .06567 1.0431 121.9 24.0
2027 09 12 02 56 52.258 +14 07 42.60 .06525 1.0433 122.7 24.0
2027 09 13 02 57 43.775 +14 08 41.84 .06483 1.0435 123.5 23.9
2027 09 14 02 58 30.934 +14 09 22.00 .06442 1.0437 124.2 23.9
2027 09 15 02 59 13.625 +14 09 42.78 .06400 1.0439 125.0 23.9
2027 09 16 02 59 51.723 +14 09 43.85 .06358 1.0441 125.9 23.8
2027 09 17 03 00 25.094 +14 09 24.79 .06317 1.0443 126.7 23.8
2027 09 18 03 00 53.589 +14 08 45.18 .06275 1.0445 127.6 23.8
2027 09 19 03 01 17.049 +14 07 44.51 .06234 1.0447 128.5 23.7
2027 09 20 03 01 35.303 +14 06 22.29 .06193 1.0449 129.4 23.7
2027 09 21 03 01 48.174 +14 04 38.00 .06153 1.0451 130.3 23.7
2027 09 22 03 01 55.480 +14 02 31.12 .06112 1.0453 131.3 23.6
2027 09 23 03 01 57.038 +14 00 01.19 .06072 1.0454 132.2 23.6
2027 09 24 03 01 52.673 +13 57 07.79 .06033 1.0456 133.2 23.5
2027 09 25 03 01 42.221 +13 53 50.58 .05994 1.0458 134.3 23.5
2027 09 26 03 01 25.543 +13 50 09.37 .05957 1.0460 135.3 23.5
2027 09 27 03 01 02.526 +13 46 04.09 .05920 1.0462 136.4 23.4
2027 09 28 03 00 33.098 +13 41 34.84 .05884 1.0464 137.5 23.4
2027 09 29 02 59 57.230 +13 36 41.89 .05849 1.0466 138.7 23.3
2027 09 30 02 59 14.940 +13 31 25.68 .05816 1.0468 139.8 23.3
2027 10 01 02 58 26.289 +13 25 46.74 .05784 1.0470 141.0 23.2
2027 10 02 02 57 31.376 +13 19 45.72 .05753 1.0472 142.2 23.2
2027 10 03 02 56 30.330 +13 13 23.30 .05725 1.0474 143.5 23.2
2027 10 04 02 55 23.303 +13 06 40.21 .05698 1.0476 144.7 23.1
2027 10 05 02 54 10.463 +12 59 37.15 .05673 1.0478 146.0 23.1
2027 10 06 02 52 51.988 +12 52 14.85 .05650 1.0480 147.3 23.0
2027 10 07 02 51 28.073 +12 44 34.05 .05630 1.0482 148.7 23.0
2027 10 08 02 49 58.918 +12 36 35.51 .05611 1.0484 150.0 22.9
2027 10 09 02 48 24.740 +12 28 20.01 .05595 1.0486 151.4 22.9
2027 10 10 02 46 45.762 +12 19 48.38 .05581 1.0488 152.8 22.8
2027 10 11 02 45 02.221 +12 11 01.47 .05570 1.0490 154.2 22.8
2027 10 12 02 43 14.363 +12 02 00.20 .05561 1.0492 155.7 22.8
2027 10 13 02 41 22.443 +11 52 45.51 .05555 1.0493 157.1 22.7
2027 10 14 02 39 26.724 +11 43 18.40 .05551 1.0495 158.6 22.7
2027 10 15 02 37 27.473 +11 33 39.90 .05550 1.0497 160.1 22.6
2027 10 16 02 35 24.966 +11 23 51.10 .05553 1.0499 161.6 22.6
2027 10 17 02 33 19.482 +11 13 53.19 .05558 1.0501 163.1 22.5
2027 10 18 02 31 11.311 +11 03 47.41 .05566 1.0503 164.6 22.5
2027 10 19 02 29 00.756 +10 53 35.13 .05577 1.0505 166.1 22.4
2027 10 20 02 26 48.135 +10 43 17.88 .05591 1.0506 167.6 22.4
2027 10 21 02 24 33.790 +10 32 57.34 .05609 1.0508 169.1 22.3
2027 10 22 02 22 18.087 +10 22 35.39 .05630 1.0510 170.6 22.3
2027 10 23 02 20 01.424 +10 12 14.08 .05654 1.0512 172.0 22.2
2027 10 24 02 17 44.229 +10 01 55.68 .05682 1.0514 173.4 22.2
2027 10 25 02 15 26.961 +09 51 42.62 .05714 1.0515 174.7 22.1
2027 10 26 02 13 10.105 +09 41 37.48 .05750 1.0517 175.8 22.1
2027 10 27 02 10 54.168 +09 31 42.91 .05789 1.0519 176.5 22.1
2027 10 28 02 08 39.668 +09 22 01.62 .05833 1.0520 176.5 22.1
2027 10 29 02 06 27.124 +09 12 36.26 .05880 1.0522 175.9 22.1
2027 10 30 02 04 17.041 +09 03 29.36 .05931 1.0524 174.9 22.2
2027 10 31 02 02 09.898 +08 54 43.27 .05986 1.0525 173.7 22.3
2027 11 01 02 00 06.141 +08 46 20.14 .06045 1.0527 172.3 22.4
2027 11 02 01 58 06.172 +08 38 21.84 .06108 1.0529 171.0 22.5
2027 11 03 01 56 10.349 +08 30 49.99 .06175 1.0530 169.6 22.5
2027 11 04 01 54 18.984 +08 23 45.97 .06245 1.0532 168.2 22.6
2027 11 05 01 52 32.344 +08 17 10.90 .06320 1.0533 166.8 22.7
2027 11 06 01 50 50.652 +08 11 05.68 .06397 1.0535 165.4 22.8
2027 11 07 01 49 14.092 +08 05 30.98 .06479 1.0536 164.0 22.8
2027 11 08 01 47 42.806 +08 00 27.30 .06563 1.0538 162.7 22.9
2027 11 09 01 46 16.905 +07 55 54.92 .06651 1.0539 161.3 23.0
2027 11 10 01 44 56.460 +07 51 53.98 .06743 1.0541 160.0 23.0
2027 11 11 01 43 41.513 +07 48 24.41 .06837 1.0542 158.7 23.1
2027 11 12 01 42 32.078 +07 45 26.06 .06935 1.0544 157.5 23.2
2027 11 13 01 41 28.139 +07 42 58.62 .07036 1.0545 156.2 23.3
2027 11 14 01 40 29.661 +07 41 01.71 .07139 1.0546 155.0 23.3
2027 11 15 01 39 36.593 +07 39 34.88 .07246 1.0548 153.8 23.4
2027 11 16 01 38 48.875 +07 38 37.69 .07355 1.0549 152.6 23.5
2027 11 17 01 38 06.443 +07 38 09.71 .07468 1.0550 151.4 23.5
2027 11 18 01 37 29.237 +07 38 10.56 .07583 1.0552 150.3 23.6
2027 11 19 01 36 57.202 +07 38 39.90 .07701 1.0553 149.1 23.6
2027 11 20 01 36 30.297 +07 39 37.47 .07821 1.0554 148.0 23.7
2027 11 21 01 36 08.486 +07 41 03.06 .07944 1.0555 147.0 23.8
2027 11 22 01 35 51.743 +07 42 56.48 .08070 1.0557 145.9 23.8
2027 11 23 01 35 40.046 +07 45 17.54 .08199 1.0558 144.9 23.9
2027 11 24 01 35 33.376 +07 48 06.02 .08330 1.0559 143.9 24.0
2027 11 25 01 35 31.709 +07 51 21.68 .08464 1.0560 142.9 24.0