"Pseudo-MPEC" for 2019-021B = NORAD 44187 = Falcon 9 rocket

Created 2019 Sep 2 14:16:46 UT using Find_Orb

Click here for an explanation of pseudo-MPECs

You can find TLEs for this object, and for some of the other artsats on these pages.

Denis Denisenko found a linkage between ZTF06NN = S511700, as a new and (at the time) unidentified artificial satellite. That gave me an orbit allowing me to link in three previous detections, S511643 = ZTF06CH = S511500, spanning 22 May to 31 August 2019.

A search for other detections in the ITF and NEOCP, going back to January 2018, was unsuccessful. So I thought the object might be new, or could have maneuvered.

I often run puzzles of this sort past Jonathan McDowell. He promptly identified the object as 2019-021B = NORAD 44187, the Falcon 9 rocket from the Arabsat 6A launch on 2019 April 11. Which would certainly explain why I couldn't get precoveries before May 22.

Space-Track has sometimes provided TLEs for this object, but not very consistently. Catalina Sky Survey and (X74) Observatório Campo dos Amarais both found the object at times when we did have TLE coverage. Leonardo Amaral mentioned that it was about two degrees off prediction, so the TLEs, while available from Space-Track, were not especially good.

As a result, I'm now computing orbits and TLEs for this object.

 
 Astrometry: 
     S511500  C2019 05 22.30993 23 31 29.42 -06 29 25.8    ~5MES 10.4 RqNEOCPY00
     S511500  C2019 05 22.31089 23 31 47.76 -06 27 02.8    ~5MES 11.5 RqNEOCPY00
     S511500  C2019 05 22.31191 23 32 06.50 -06 24 36.3    ~5MES 10.8 RqNEOCPY00
     C0D49Q1  C2019 07 03.43468 01 35 47.78 +05 11 17.3         x12.9 GV     703
     C0D49Q1  C2019 07 03.43955 01 36 20.77 +05 16 09.0         x13.1 GV     703
     C0D49Q1  C2019 07 03.44442 01 36 51.54 +05 20 46.1         x12.9 GV     703
     C0D49Q1  C2019 07 03.44929 01 37 23.64 +05 25 38.1         x12.9 GV     703
     C0D7Y31  C2019 07 04.42480 00 42 44.82 -00 32 05.1         x12.9 GV     703
     C0D7Y31  C2019 07 04.42999 00 43 18.20 -00 25 28.7         x12.3 GV     703
     C0D7Y31  C2019 07 04.43519 00 43 50.12 -00 19 05.7         x12.3 GV     703
     C0D7Y31  C2019 07 04.44038 00 44 22.21 -00 12 32.7         x12.3 GV     703
     S511643  C2019 07 28.26928 23 28 45.34 -01 24 36.0    ~7SF1 11.5 RqNEOCPY00
     S511643  C2019 07 28.27062 23 29 12.85 -01 21 04.2    ~7SF1 11.3 RqNEOCPY00
     S511643  C2019 07 28.27232 23 29 47.06 -01 16 40.5    ~7SF1 11.2 RqNEOCPY00
     057001s tC2019 07 31.29322 00 56 06.26 +06 55 16.4         x14.5 R      X74
     057001s tC2019 07 31.30313 00 56 44.45 +07 04 44.5         x14.9 R      X74
     057001s tC2019 07 31.31300 00 57 22.41 +07 14 10.6         x15.1 R      X74
     ZTF06NN  C2019 08 28.43873801 04 47.16 +05 33 39.5    ~8V3w 12.84gUNEOCPI41
     ZTF06NN  C2019 08 28.43908601 04 48.62 +05 33 59.8    ~8V3w 12.84gUNEOCPI41
     ZTF06NN  C2019 08 28.45247701 05 46.47 +05 47 05.6    ~8V3w 12.93gUNEOCPI41
     ZTF06NN  C2019 08 28.45282401 05 48.00 +05 47 26.1    ~8V3w 12.93gUNEOCPI41
     ZTF06NN  C2019 08 28.45292801 05 48.49 +05 47 31.6    ~8V3w 12.93gUNEOCPI41
     ZTF06NN  C2019 08 28.45327501 05 50.01 +05 47 51.5    ~8V3w 12.93gUNEOCPI41
     S511700  C2019 08 31.22483 01 23 07.52 +11 05 11.3    ~8VC0 12.2 RqNEOCPY00
     S511700  C2019 08 31.22576 01 23 10.71 +11 06 00.6    ~8VC0 12.8 RqNEOCPY00
     S511700  C2019 08 31.22691 01 23 14.62 +11 07 01.1    ~8VC0 13.0 RqNEOCPY00
     ZTF06bl  C2019 09 01.43210701 01 55.17 +05 28 19.5    ~92D0 12.88gUNEOCPI41
     ZTF06bl  C2019 09 01.43245401 01 56.67 +05 28 40.2    ~92D0 12.88gUNEOCPI41
     ZTF06bl  C2019 09 01.43255801 01 56.82 +05 28 50.1    ~92D0 12.86gUNEOCPI41
     ZTF06bl  C2019 09 01.43290501 01 58.43 +05 29 12.0    ~92D0 12.86gUNEOCPI41

Station data:
(703) Catalina Sky Survey  (N32.417006 W110.732640)  US/Arizona.  Observer B.
   M. Africano. Measurers B. M. Africano, E. J. Christensen, G. A. Farneth,
   D. C. Fuls, A. R. Gibbs, A. D. Grauer, H. Gröller, R. A. Kowalski, S. M.
   Larson, G. J. Leonard, T. A. Pruyne, D. Rankin, R. L. Seaman, F. C. Shelly.
    0.68-m Schmidt + 10K CCD.
(I41) Palomar Mountain--ZTF  (N33.357340 W116.859780)  US/California. 1.2-m
   f/2.44 Oschin Schmidt + CCD.
(X74) Observatório Campo dos Amarais  (S21.661263 W50.849400)  Brazil.
(Y00) SONEAR Observatory, Oliveira  (S20.715082 W44.784960)  Brazil.
   Observers C. Jacques, E. Pimentel, J. Barros. Measurer C. Jacques. 0.28-m
   f/2.2 astrograph + CCD.

Orbital elements:  2019-021B = NORAD 44187 = Falcon 9 rocket
   Perigee 2019 Aug 1.125543 +/- 4.63e-5 TT =  3:00:46 (JD 2458696.625543)
Epoch 2019 Aug  1.0 TT; AMR 0.057376 +/- 0.00906 m2/kg       Gray
M 326.2491722236 +/- 0.012          (J2000 equator)
n 268.8383729698 +/- 0.000182       Peri.  199.5314885 +/- 0.10
a 51318.741863 +/- 0.0232           Node     1.2566157 +/- 0.10
e   0.866326702 +/- 3.38e-5         Incl.   22.8522291 +/- 0.0014
P1928.26m/1.339d           H 26.9   G  0.15   U  7.0
q 6859.9454447 +/- 1.73    Q 95777.538281 +/- 1.75
19 of 30 observations 2019 May 22-Sept. 1; mean residual 7".784
Residuals in arcseconds: 
190522 Y00 3.27+ 1.57+    190704 703( 121- 37.3-)   190828 I41 11.6- 4.99-
190522 Y00 7.92+ 4.11+    190728 Y00 11.1- 6.13-    190828 I41 11.0- 5.50-
190522 Y00 4.34+ 2.24+    190728 Y00 10.4- 5.45-    190828 I41 10.7- 5.65-
190703 703( 142- 45.4-)   190728 Y00 13.4- 6.68-    190831 Y00 1.50+ .458-
190703 703( 131- 39.5-)   190731 X74( 177- 85.1-)   190831 Y00 1.66+ .101-
190703 703( 148- 48.6-)   190731 X74( 189- 95.8-)   190831 Y00 1.40+ .018-
190703 703( 139- 43.1-)   190731 X74( 191- 96.7-)   190901 I41 14.9+ 4.22+
190704 703( 123- 41.2-)   190828 I41 9.89- 4.59-    190901 I41 14.1+ 3.78+
190704 703( 120- 37.5-)   190828 I41 10.6- 5.03-    190901 I41 9.41+ 7.35+
190704 703( 128- 44.4-)   190828 I41 12.1- 5.42-    190901 I41 10.3+ 8.13+

Ephemerides (geocentric):
Date (UTC) HH   RA              Dec         delta  elong  mag " sig PA
---- --------  --------------  -----------  -----  -----  --- --------
2019 09 01 00  22 42 01.827   -07 06 14.78   33218 178.3 Sha  50.4  63
2019 09 01 01  23 18 30.290   -03 25 04.05   44286 168.9 10.0 30.3  61
2019 09 01 02  23 41 07.528   -01 03 56.92   53422 162.8 10.6 21.2  59
2019 09 01 03  23 57 30.704   +00 38 54.38   61155 158.4 11.0 15.9  58
2019 09 01 04  00 10 26.752   +01 59 56.23   67780 155.0 11.4 12.4  58
2019 09 01 05  00 21 13.895   +03 07 07.73   73484 152.1 11.6 9.77  57
2019 09 01 06  00 30 34.727   +04 04 54.95   78391 149.6 11.8 7.75  57
2019 09 01 07  00 38 54.953   +04 56 00.14   82590 147.4 12.0 6.11  57
2019 09 01 08  00 46 31.325   +05 42 09.50   86146 145.4 12.2 4.73  57
2019 09 01 09  00 53 35.455   +06 24 36.49   89105 143.6 12.3 3.54  58
2019 09 01 10  01 00 15.838   +07 04 14.48   91505 141.8 12.4 2.49  59
2019 09 01 11  01 06 38.998   +07 41 43.86   93372 140.2 12.5 1.54  62
2019 09 01 12  01 12 50.203   +08 17 36.49   94725 138.6 12.6 .692  70
2019 09 01 13  01 18 53.918   +08 52 18.57   95578 137.0 12.6 .234 179
2019 09 01 14  01 24 54.135   +09 26 12.52   95940 135.4 12.7 .902  42
2019 09 01 15  01 30 54.624   +09 59 38.44   95814 133.9 12.7 1.60  47
2019 09 01 16  01 36 59.147   +10 32 55.22   95198 132.4 12.7 2.27  49
2019 09 01 17  01 43 11.680   +11 06 21.54   94086 130.8 12.8 2.90  50
2019 09 01 18  01 49 36.652   +11 40 16.82   92469 129.1 12.8 3.52  50
2019 09 01 19  01 56 19.259   +12 15 02.27   90328 127.4 12.8 4.11  50
2019 09 01 20  02 03 25.890   +12 51 02.28   87642 125.6 12.8 4.67  50
2019 09 01 21  02 11 04.780   +13 28 46.21   84378 123.7 12.7 5.21  50
2019 09 01 22  02 19 27.037   +14 08 51.01   80495 121.6 12.7 5.71  50
2019 09 01 23  02 28 48.411   +14 52 05.31   75937 119.3 12.6 6.14  49
2019 09 02 00  02 39 32.498   +15 39 36.09   70628 116.6 12.6 6.47  48
2019 09 02 01  02 52 17.135   +16 33 00.06   64464 113.5 12.4 6.60  46
2019 09 02 02  03 08 08.526   +17 34 44.04   57291 109.6 12.3 6.36  41
2019 09 02 03  03 29 17.557   +18 48 40.78   48874 104.5 12.1 5.40  27
2019 09 02 04  04 00 56.433   +20 20 48.64   38821  96.9 11.9 5.23 148
2019 09 02 05  05 00 28.936   +22 12 09.85   26373  82.9 11.6 24.5  99
2019 09 02 06  08 42 58.092   +17 01 30.90   10172  30.6 14??  315 106
2019 09 02 07  20 51 08.859   -16 26 58.90   16740 151.4  8.4  168  72
2019 09 02 08  22 35 09.049   -07 42 46.26   31419 177.9 Sha  56.0  64
2019 09 02 09  23 15 00.055   -03 42 48.76   42837 171.1  9.8 32.6  61
2019 09 02 10  23 38 54.408   -01 13 57.23   52212 164.7 10.5 22.5  59
2019 09 02 11  23 55 56.572   +00 32 54.89   60125 160.1 10.9 16.8  58
2019 09 02 12  00 09 15.536   +01 56 18.97   66897 156.6 11.3 13.1  58
2019 09 02 13  00 20 17.440   +03 05 01.53   72725 153.6 11.6 10.3  57
2019 09 02 14  00 29 48.362   +04 03 50.13   77741 151.1 11.8 8.26  57
2019 09 02 15  00 38 15.755   +04 55 38.05   82037 148.9 12.0 6.56  57
2019 09 02 16  00 45 57.336   +05 42 17.64   85682 146.8 12.1 5.15  57
2019 09 02 17  00 53 05.288   +06 25 06.04   88725 145.0 12.2 3.93  58
2019 09 02 18  00 59 48.456   +07 04 58.88   91203 143.2 12.3 2.86  59
2019 09 02 19  01 06 13.589   +07 42 38.04   93145 141.5 12.4 1.90  61
2019 09 02 20  01 12 26.098   +08 18 36.34   94571 139.9 12.5 1.03  66
2019 09 02 21  01 18 30.536   +08 53 20.60   95495 138.4 12.6 .295 101
2019 09 02 22  01 24 30.945   +09 27 13.61   95927 136.8 12.6 .594  32
2019 09 02 23  01 30 31.109   +10 00 35.69   95871 135.3 12.7 1.28  44
2019 09 03 00  01 36 34.779   +10 33 45.76   95325 133.7 12.7 1.95  47
2019 09 03 01  01 42 45.883   +11 07 02.39   94286 132.2 12.7 2.59  48
2019 09 03 02  01 49 08.768   +11 40 44.73   92742 130.5 12.7 3.21  49
2019 09 03 03  01 55 48.497   +12 15 13.55   90678 128.8 12.7 3.80  49
2019 09 03 04  02 02 51.254   +12 50 52.54   88071 127.1 12.7 4.36  50
2019 09 03 05  02 10 24.956   +13 28 09.99   84893 125.2 12.7 4.90  49
2019 09 03 06  02 18 40.214   +14 07 41.29   81102 123.1 12.7 5.40  49
2019 09 03 07  02 27 51.956   +14 50 12.66   76645 120.8 12.6 5.84  49
2019 09 03 08  02 38 22.362   +15 36 47.26   71450 118.2 12.5 6.18  47
2019 09 03 09  02 50 46.610   +16 28 55.59   65417 115.1 12.4 6.34  45
2019 09 03 10  03 06 05.375   +17 28 53.78   58401 111.4 12.3 6.16  41
2019 09 03 11  03 26 16.149   +18 40 15.98   50183 106.5 12.1 5.34  28
2019 09 03 12  03 55 49.962   +20 08 35.34   40400  99.4 11.9 4.87 156
2019 09 03 13  04 48 55.598   +21 57 17.69   28369  86.9 11.6 19.5 101
2019 09 03 14  07 36 13.814   +20 31 53.55   12703  48.1 12??  190 102
2019 09 03 15  20 16 07.535   -18 34 40.37   14251 141.5  8.4  225  75
2019 09 03 16  22 27 09.755   -08 25 14.31   29546 174.7 Sha  62.9  64
2019 09 03 17  23 11 05.516   -04 03 02.12   41338 173.4 Sha  35.1  61
2019 09 03 18  23 36 27.873   -01 25 23.46   50962 166.6 10.4 23.9  60
2019 09 03 19  23 54 13.464   +00 25 56.71   59063 161.9 10.9 17.8  59
2019 09 03 20  00 07 57.669   +01 51 57.75   65986 158.2 11.2 13.8  58
2019 09 03 21  00 19 15.764   +03 02 20.57   71940 155.2 11.5 11.0  58
2019 09 03 22  00 28 57.755   +04 02 16.95   77067 152.6 11.7 8.78  57
2019 09 03 23  00 37 33.045   +04 54 52.40   81462 150.3 11.9 7.03  57
2019 09 04 00  00 45 20.414   +05 42 06.02   85197 148.3 12.1 5.57  58
2019 09 04 01  00 52 32.668   +06 25 18.98   88324 146.4 12.2 4.33  58
2019 09 04 02  00 59 19.037   +07 05 29.41   90882 144.6 12.3 3.23  59
2019 09 04 03  01 05 46.518   +07 43 20.78   92899 142.9 12.4 2.26  60
2019 09 04 04  01 12 00.675   +08 19 26.99   94398 141.3 12.5 1.38  64
2019 09 04 05  01 18 06.164   +08 54 15.51   95394 139.7 12.5 .589  78
2019 09 04 06  01 24 07.083   +09 28 09.60   95896 138.2 12.6 .331   6
2019 09 04 07  01 30 07.240   +10 01 29.80   95909 136.7 12.6 .973  39