P. Clay Sherrod Oct 31 8:20 AM
----- Original Message -----
From: "Bill J Gray" <pluto@...>
To: <guide-user@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Sunday, October 31, 2010 10:14 AM
Subject: Re: [guide-user] MPCORB-based position 9' wrong for asteroid 2003UV11 ? why ?
> Hi Peter,
>
> I can't blame MPCORB.DAT for this error. (Well, not accurately,
> anyway.)
>
> The problem is that the elements are for the epoch 2010 July 23,
> and perturbations between then and now are ignored by Guide. Usually,
> this isn't a very big deal (except for people doing asteroid occultation
> work, who need things down to the last milliarcsecond of precision).
> 99% of Guide users will never notice. But 2003 UV11 is a very near-earth
> object. Any perturbations are "magnified" by the object being so close
> to us. A thousand-kilometer error would be negligible for a main-belt
> asteroid two AU from us; it suddenly becomes much more noticeable when
> the object is only .01 AU away.
>
> MPC keeps all elements on a "standard" epoch. In this case,
> 2010 July 23 = JD 2455400.5. The epoch is always an even multiple of
> 200 days, plus .5 days. They usually keep it within 100 days of the
> present... today is 2010 Oct 31 = JD 2455500.5, so you are seeing
> the maximum possible error!
>
> JPL chose the epoch JD 2455502.5 = 2010-Nov-02. You wouldn't see
> much error at all with those elements.
>
> The ideal solution to this problem would be for Guide to do the
> numerical integration so that perturbations would be included. There
> are some problems with this, mostly involving speed. Another excellent
> solution would be for MPCORB to have an epoch that changes more often
> than once every 200 days. That would both decrease the sort of error
> you're seeing now, _and_ mean than if Guide did the numerical integration,
> it would usually be for a few days instead of up to 100 days.
>
> One _can_ create an MPCORB.DAT with a more current epoch. (Or with
> any desired epoch, useful in case you want to run things backward or
> forward a hundred years or so.) The tool required is described at
>
> http://home.gwi.net/~pluto/integrat.htm
>
> It's a bit of a hassle to do this, and I don't expect most people
> to bother. That's one reason having Guide do the integration itself
> still matters.
>
> -- Bill
>
>
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