Re: Delta-T

Andis Kaulins Sep 19, 2005

--- In guide-user@yahoogroups.com, Bill J Gray <pluto@p...> wrote:
> Hi Larry, all,
>
> As Denis points out, one can (in theory) go to the Web site and
> dig through the source code (delta_t.cpp, in this case) and see
> exactly how Delta-T is computed. As source code goes, this is
> (in my humble opinion as its author!) reasonably clear and easy
> to understand... _if_ you happen to be a C programmer. It's
> probably rather opaque to the rest of the world, I'm afraid.
>
> Anyway. 'delta_t.cpp' has a table of values for Delta-T from
> 1618 to 2004, at two-year intervals, and interpolates within
> that table. After 2002, it just does a linear extrapolation.
> That is, for 1 January 2002, it has Delta-T = 64.30 seconds;
> for 1 January 2004, it has Delta-T = 64.57 seconds, i.e.,
> Delta-T increased by .17 seconds over those two years. So,
> for a given time t (expressed in years),
>
> Delta-T = 64.57 + (t - 2004) * .17 / 2
>
> That rate of increase corresponds to 8.5 seconds/century, and
> to Delta-T = 64.13 seconds on 1 January 2000. So in the more
> conventional system where t_cen = centuries from J2000,
>
> Delta-T = 64.13 + 8.5 * t_cen
>
> Usual warning: Delta-T becomes increasingly ill-defined as
> you extrapolate it. For example, a decade or so ago, it
> looked as if Delta-T was going to keep increasing by about a
> second or so each year, requiring a new "leap second" each
> December. Then it stopped increasing so briskly, and we've
> not had a new leap second since 1999. The above formula is
> there simply because Guide has to say _something_ about what
> Delta-T is apt to be, even if that something isn't very
> meaningful.
>
> -- Bill

One way to understand Delta-T better is to spot the cycles which may
be incorporated within it. One of these may be solar luminosity -
which may have a ca. 190-year cycle, as manifested in the delta-T
values evidenced between ca. 1700 and ca. 1890.

As written at
http://www2.nature.nps.gov/geology/caves/newsletters/ie7_1/ie7_1.pdf
"A Master's thesis on a broken stalagmite in the main cave
indicates a temperature cycle of 190 years between ~13,500 and 9,500
years ago, most likely a solar luminosity cycle."

This in turn may relate to the cycles in sun spots
http://personal.inet.fi/tiede/tilmari/sunspot5.html
which in turn are related to geomagnetic activity
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/info/SumSept.html.

In my opinion, these variations are caused by planetary perturbations
viz. planetary positions varying between perihelion and aphelion. See
http://www.stjarnhimlen.se/comp/tutorial.html

If that were true, then primarily responsible for the ca. 190-year
cycle would be Pluto (actually, the orbit here is 248 years as such),
which was at perihelion until 1999, when it was still within
Neptune's orbit. See
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2001/ast04jan_1.htm
Now it is headed back out to be the 9th planet again.

Accordingly, if the above theory be true, Delta T should now slow
down as it has, stay constant at ca. +65 and then diminish, rather
than increase. Of course even if we were right on this prediction, we
could be wrong, since current theory is that the planets can not
exert this kind of influence, but I am not so sure.

Andis Kaulins
The LexiLine Group at Yahoo
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/LexiLine/ with a posting relating to
Delta-T at http://groups.yahoo.com/group/LexiLine/message/1340