Re: [find_orb] Re: Monte Carlo create problem

Andy Puckett Apr 10, 2015

If the observations are very scant, leaving much room for a large variety of crazy orbits, then sometimes Monte Carlo comes up with orbits that are "just too crazy."  I don't have a better explanation than this, but I will say that I have seen this behavior before.  The too-crazy orbits simply aren't recorded, but they are still counted in the total number of orbits generated.

You could check to see how much variation there is between your 25 MC orbits by plugging them into my visualization engine:
http://facstaff.columbusstate.edu/puckett_andrew/orbitmaster.html
http://facstaff.columbusstate.edu/puckett_andrew/OrbitLoader/

Sincerely,
Andy Puckett

On Fri, Apr 10, 2015 at 12:14 PM, limax7@... [find_orb] <find_orb@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
 

I still have a problem with Monte Carlo.

Example asteroid 2013 TX68 http://newton.dm.unipi.it/neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.7.0&n=2013%20TX68

 


32 observations. I change epoch to 2016 03 07 and generate 100 Monte Carlo orbits (visible in Find_Orb button) but in mpcorb.dat and state.txt file are more less (20-25 orbits).

Is that correct ? Why program calculate more orbits but saves less ?

Adam